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In norast y fight against flames devouring ir cereal fields, in South water masses plunge from sky. Here are weeks of drought, forest fires and blazing fields, re are floods, landslides and floods. The wear extremes are increasing. And German peasants must prepare mselves for this.
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There is little point in asking every heavy rain wher climate change is coming, “but likelihood of thunderstorms in Germany has risen in wake of global warming,” says Stefan Rahmstorf of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. A furr increase is to be expected for coming decades (Journal of Geophysical Research: Mohr et al., 2015).
The German Wear Service (DWD) also confirms that extreme wear conditions are increasing: In past 15 years re has been a lot of rain. And alone in two weeks between end of May and beginning of June 2018, DWD issued more than 3,000 severe wear warnings. An unprecedented number.
The models of climate researchers predicted years ago that short-term local storms would increase (reviews of geophysics: Westra et al., 2014). Such falling rains hardly allow time to protect mselves. There were about 2016 in Franconian Braunsbach, this year in Wuppertal and in Lower Saxon Gremsheim, to major floods within a short time.
Since 1901, droughts have been increasing
The storms and heavy rains are facing drought and drought elsewhere. In past two months, stable wear was very warm. This is because summer westerly winds in our latitudes become weaker – also a consequence of rising temperatures in Arctic (science: Coumou et al., 2015). Storm fronts with cooler wear will stay out. In first half of 2018, mainly norast of Germany dried up:
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Niederschlagssumme of first 6 months in 2018 from Radar (RADOLAN) and Bodenmessungen (REGNIE) shows dry norast half, in Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt, Thüringen, Brandenburg large-scale under 60% of Mittelwerts; Dürre; Https://t.co/stejPCLXEM pic.twitter.com/MI9XOsBSSb
— DWD Climate and Environment (@DWD_klima) July 6th, 2018
Since 1901, droughts have steadily increased in Germany. And climate models are expecting more hot days and heat periods in future. “In past years we are experiencing an accumulation of climatological records, which can only be explained in sum with climate change,” says Paul Becker, vice president of German Meteorological service. “This also means that extreme events are increasing. We all require more intensive adaptation and climate protection measures. “
Farmers and foresters, in particular, must prepare mselves. Heat and dryness damage grain, tree species such as spruce and pine suffer especially. Self-produced food is becoming scarcer. Mild winters, heat stress and more frequent Kahlfrost (i.e. minus degrees without a protective snow cover) set fields. From mild winters, pests and weeds benefit. and warmer springs let cultures grow and bloom earlier. When winter comes back again, masses of blossoms will freeze – as in April 2017, when high losses in fruit and viticulture were caused by late frosts in sourn Germany.
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But higher temperatures and more CO2 in air can also bring positive effects for agriculture. Plants are growing better and it is easier to grow new crops such as soya or durum wheat. However, negative effects of drought, floods, hail and late frosts seem to weigh more heavily. For this year alone, insurance experts with more than two billion euros are expecting damage to agriculture.
