Will impunity reign around the deadliest conflict in recent years? The war in Tigray, its hundreds of thousands of victims – 600,000 according to the African Union (AU) – and the crimes against humanity allegedly committed in this region of northern Ethiopia are no longer the subject of no international monitoring. The mandate of the International Commission of Experts on Human Rights in Ethiopia (ICHREE), the body responsible for investigating the conflict, was not renewed on Wednesday October 4.
The abandonment of this expert mission set up in 2021 by the UN Human Rights Council marks the end of the international investigation mechanism into possible crimes against humanity committed in Tigray in November 2020 to November 2022. A victory for the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, hostile to any UN investigation which would expose him to international prosecution, while his image as Nobel Peace Prize winner (obtained in 2019) is already seriously damaged.
The latest ICHREE report, published on September 14, was clear. Mass murders, acts of torture, siege imposed on Tigray, systematic rapes on a large scale, ethnic profiling and forced expulsion of inhabitants of certain regions… Experts paint a chilling picture – the most complete to date – of the war crimes perpetrated in Tigray and neighboring regions, Amhara and Afar. They mainly target the Ethiopian army, Eritrean troops and militias from the Amhara region, but also the insurgents of the Tigray Popular Liberation Front (TPLF), accused of arbitrary executions and rapes.
Instability
The Ethiopian authorities, who denounce a “politicized” report and have deployed intense diplomatic efforts to prevent the renewal of the commission of inquiry, have always refused to allow UN experts to go there. Following a first diplomatic victory in June, with the premature dissolution of the mandate of the AU commission of inquiry into the situation in Tigray, Addis Ababa set up its own national transitional justice mechanism. But the group of Ethiopian experts, secretly guided by the Ministry of Justice, operates in total opacity and has so far only conducted a handful of consultations.
These measures “supposed to fight against impunity have, in practice, mainly served to alleviate international pressure and to remove the prospect of international commitment”, regrets the ICHREE report. “The Ethiopian government has not shown sufficient will to undertake a credible investigation,” says Laetitia Bader, director of Human Rights Watch for the Horn of Africa. In Ethiopia, since the fall of Emperor Haile Selassie in 1974, successive regime changes, often violent, have never been accompanied by restorative justice work.
Although the UN commission of experts is now buried, it leaves behind an alarming observation about the situation in Ethiopia. The country finds itself once again plunged into instability. In August, a revolt by nationalist militias and a series of assassinations of government officials prompted Abiy Ahmed to declare martial law in the Amhara region and send in the army. As in Tigray, the repression there is fierce: arbitrary executions, artillery fire, use of drones… The Ethiopian army only controls half of the territory, confides a European diplomat in Addis Ababa. “The risk of seeing further atrocities is high,” worries the United Nations.
Once quick to denounce human rights violations in Tigray – going so far as to speak, like American Secretary of State Antony Blinken, of “ethnic cleansing” – Western chancelleries are now keeping a low profile. The United States fully supports Ethiopia’s transitional justice mechanism. The European Union (EU), despite internal dissensions, has also lined up behind the process launched by Addis Ababa.
Impunity
“What is the point of renewing a UN commission that neither the Ethiopian government nor the Tigray authorities want? », justifies a European diplomat, according to whom the two camps wish to give the appearance of reconciliation without going through the investigation box. On Tuesday, Jutta Urpilainen, the European Commissioner for International Partnerships, signed with Addis Ababa a Multiannual Indicative Cooperation Program (MIP) worth €650 million over the period 2024-2027. “Together, the EU and Ethiopia want to gradually normalize their relationship,” she assured.
“The Europeans are afraid that an international investigation will weaken the peace in Ethiopia and lead to the collapse of the country, as in Sudan, with the risks of a migratory wave that this entails,” assures his side, on condition of anonymity, an Ethiopian diplomat in Geneva. Several observers also note that the Western camp is redoubling its efforts to reconnect with Addis Ababa since Ethiopia’s recent accession to the Brics, the group of emerging powers initially formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Human rights organizations implore the EU to keep its promises on the fight against impunity, which pushed the Twenty-Seven to freeze budgetary aid to Ethiopia in 2020. According to Tigere Chagutah, director Amnesty International’s regional office for East Africa, abandoning an international investigation “is tantamount to reinforcing impunity, abandoning victims, and would set a terrible precedent for the United Nations’ ability to monitor humanitarian crises.” human rights in other parts of the world.”
