What are the consequences of Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine for Putin? A conventional transfer of power seems out of the question; the FSB rather fears a coup, as a whistleblower report reveals. Accordingly, two Putin challengers would see their time as coming.
Circles within the Russian secret service FSB apparently fear a civil war in the country. This is reported by the US magazine “Newsweek”, citing internal emails from the authority. A whistleblower with the alias “Wind of Change” sent the emails he wrote himself to exiled human rights activist Vladimir Osechkin, who runs the website Gulagu.net. According to “Newsweek”, the correspondence is available in full. Earlier e-mails from the whistleblower had been assessed as genuine by an FSB expert.
Accordingly, the e-mails describe conflicts within the Kremlin. The names of the founder of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov are also mentioned. Both had criticized the Russian warfare in Ukraine in the past. The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in late October that Prigozhin and his mercenary squad could pose a threat to Putin’s power.
According to the leaked FSB emails, “there is no model for a ‘simple transfer of power'” in Russia. Therefore, how a violent coup could proceed is described: “In the beginning there could be a random uprising, with only looting and a chaotic skirmish between all participants. The struggle of the security authorities against the structures of Prigozhin – a real war against each other – is bad, but generally unavoidable.”
Another scenario is also discussed: “Or there will be struggles between the regions over the sharing of resources. Or there will be a scramble between different forces for control of regions or parts of the country (Russia).” Russia could collapse in total chaos, it is said.
The whistleblower further suggests in his writings that it will not be easy for the Kremlin to repress Prigozhin if it threatens Putin’s rule. The ISW had also announced that the Wagner boss was gathering supporters and building up the mercenary force, which is not under the direct control of the Russian military or the Moscow Defense Ministry. This puts him in a uniquely advantageous position.
According to “Newsweek”, the whistleblower warned on November 8 that Prigozhin was using protests and unrest in Russia about the situation in Ukraine to prepare the Wagner mercenaries for “domestic terror”. The force has been given powers and guaranteed impunity or tacit approval for acts of aggression and intimidation against those who protest against Putin’s war and policies, he writes.
The FSB is not prepared for internal terror and both Prigozhin and Kadyrov “think that their time has come to shine. Both realize that once they stop fighting, they will no longer be necessary,” the anonymous said Source. Neither of them would want to accept that, each of them considers himself indispensable.
The whistleblower says the FSB expects Prigozhin and Kadyrov to carry out a series of provocations slandering the service (FSB) and pointing to its “alleged inability to control the situation in the country”. “If everything goes according to Prigozhin’s scenario, we will lose both control and the country,” the informant concludes in the leaked emails.
