Vladimir Putin, the absent leader at the Johannesburg summit, wants to champion a “global majority” gathered around the BRICS. “We cooperate on the principles of equality and respect for each other’s interests, and this is the essence of our association’s future-oriented strategic course, a course that responds to the aspirations of the majority of the world community, the so-called global majority,” the Russian president said by videoconference, announcing that the de-dollarization process in transactions between the BRICS countries is irreversible and was willing to replace Ukrainian grain exports that his country is blocking.
Putin’s absence in Johannesburg stems from an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court that put summit host South Africa in a difficult situation and ultimately caused Putin to stay home.
In the capital of South Africa there were leaders such as the South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa; the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping; the Brazilian president, Luiz Lula da Silva; and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Putin is a staunch supporter of what he calls a “multipolar world order,” promoting structures like the BRICS as a counterweight to US- and Western-led institutions. The members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) represent more than 40% of the world’s population.
The Russian president did not refer to his criminal situation. But he admitted that the BRICS countries have to face difficult challenges in a context of market volatility and inflationary pressures due to the “irresponsible” actions of a number of countries. Russia is struggling these days to contain the fall of its currency, which yesterday weakened again to 94 rubles per dollar.
The Russian regime was represented in the room by the Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov. It was the safest format for Putin and the most comfortable for the hosts. After several weeks of tensions and denials, last month Ramaphosa’s office announced that Putin would not attend “by mutual agreement”, the Russian leader told reporters that he did not believe that his presence in the BRICS was “more important than my presence in Russia now.”
Developing countries are worried about food prices, which have been hit by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a major supplier of grain. Despite preventing these exports by force of arms, Putin indicated that Russia will continue to be a reliable supplier of production to the African continent. And he said that he is ready to return to the grain agreement in case of “actual fulfillment” of the obligations before the state.
For Russia, the BRICS are the gateway to a world where it can dispute the leadership of the US and Europe. That is why he is waging a public relations campaign portraying Russia as an anti-colonial power that supports a more just and equitable world order, all despite the fact that it is waging a war against Ukraine that Putin has justified in imperial terms.
Under the false banner of colonial liberation, Putin recalled that Russia “is in a position to replace Ukrainian grain as a commercial base and in the form of free aid to countries in need, especially considering that it is expected that this year we will once again have a bumper crop.”
Putin’s physical absence says a lot not so much about Russia’s isolation, but about the shrinking horizons of the Russian president, who is unable to move freely even in the territory of some of his fellow signatories to the International Criminal Court treaty.
The most important country Putin has left is China. The closest ally, Belarus. Nor have the leaders of Central Asia turned their backs on him, although the relationship has cooled. Iran, another international pariah, is also on his side. Russian foreign policy still has the political support of some countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia.
It was unlikely, though not impossible, that Putin could have been arrested in Johannesburg. Then-Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, accused of war crimes related to the genocide in Darfur, managed to dodge that fate during a visit to South Africa in 2015: he left the country while a court considered a request from The Hague to arrest him. Putin has acted accordingly in the knowledge that, although he aspires to be a global leader, much of the planet is no longer a safe place for him.
