The dawn of a new war? In any case, this is what Nikol Pashinian, the Armenian Prime Minister, suggests on Friday, July 21. A new conflict is “very likely”, as Azerbaijan is accused of carrying out a “genocide” of Armenians. After already two wars, the enclave of Nagorny-Karabakh is still plagued by territorial claims on each side of the border between the two countries, despite attempts at mediation initiated by the European Union, the United States and Russia.
Tensions escalated in early July when Azerbaijan on various pretexts closed traffic on the Lachin Corridor, the only road linking Nagorny-Karabakh to Armenia. This Azerbaijani blockade has created a serious humanitarian crisis within the enclave, mainly populated by Armenians, with shortages of food and medicine and frequent power cuts.
“This is not a genocide in preparation, but a genocide that is ongoing,” Pashinyan said, accusing the Azerbaijani military of creating a “ghetto” in Nagorno-Karabakh. Residents of this territory interviewed by AFP last week described empty stalls in stores and a dangerous lack of access to healthcare.
The last war between the two countries, in 2020, ended in the defeat of Armenia, which had to cede territories to Azerbaijan in and around Nagorny-Karabakh. The peace process has since stalled. “Until a peace treaty is signed and such a treaty is ratified by the parliaments of both countries, of course, a (new) war (with Azerbaijan) is very likely,” Pashinian warned.
“According to the logic of some Western circles, Russia does not meet all our expectations because it does not fulfill its obligations, but Russia tells us the same thing about the West,” he explained.
According to Pashinian, negotiations between the two rivals are being hampered by “Azerbaijan’s aggressive rhetoric and hate speech towards Armenians”. He accused Baku of carrying out a “policy of ethnic cleansing”.
On the ground, despite the establishment of a ceasefire in 2020, deadly armed clashes remain regular both in Nagorny-Karabakh and on the border between the two countries. Yerevan even accuses Baku of gradually eating away at Armenian territory.
Pashinian said that his country’s “red lines” for talks with Azerbaijan are “the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Armenia, as well as the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh”.
Mainly populated by Armenians and supported by Yerevan, Nagorny-Karabakh is considered by the international community to be part of the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. “Armenia’s case is difficult, because Armenia’s interest in this process (of defending the people of Karabakh) is perceived and interpreted by Azerbaijan as a so-called encroachment on its territorial integrity,” Pashinian said.
In previous rounds of Western-mediated negotiations, Yerevan agreed to recognize Nagorny-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but demanded international mechanisms to protect the rights and safety of the region’s ethnic Armenian population.
