The European Commission will improve this Tuesday the growth forecast of the Spanish economy in one tenth.
In November, in the winter estimates, the technical services of Brussels expected Spain to close 2021 with an increase of 4.6% in GDP, which improved an additional 5.5% in 2022 and maintained a good rhythm in 2023,
Around 4.4%.
Now, in its new forecasts, to which the world has had access, the Commission increases just above 5% the term of the term of the course and improvement in another tenth its calculations of 2022, up to 5.6%.
Experts leave the same year, at 4.4%.
The figure is below the estimates of Moncloa, but would suppose for this course the greatest growth of the entire Union after Malta.
And be between the first three the next, with a very higher rate (even double) with respect to that of the great powers, since recovery, compared, is being slower.
With the latest data available, both tax collection and job creation, and with community funds starting to water our economy, the Commission trusts that our country can accelerate a little more and above the average of the eurozone, which
It places at 4.3%.
The last quarters (despite the oscillations in the INE calculations) are positive in a consistent manner, but the Spanish is the economy that is most slowly recovering on the continent, far from the levels before the pandemic.
And of the hopes of Moncloa and Economy, which have held during the last semester a much higher threshold than that of all national and international agencies: 6.5% by 2021 and 7% by 2022. The Bank of Spain is
It places 5.4%, almost the same as Commission.
“Private consumption and investment are expected to be the main drivers of growth on the forecast horizon. The savings accumulated during pensumia and pension increases will support consumption, while the implementation of the recovery and resilience program plan
It will do with investment. The progressive normalization of international tourism should allow a contribution of net exports to GDP growth. In general, real GDP is expected to increase by 5.6% by 2022 and 4.4% in 2023.
With this we hope that the gap with the level prior to the pandemic is closed in the last quarter of 2022, “says the report.
In November, the technical services of Paolo Gentiloni had to give an important grove, with a cut of more than one point and a half, but now they see more stability, despite deep problems such as the price of energy.
The document that will be published on Tuesday at noon anticipates a little more inflation yet, after reaching figures not seen in many lustrians in the last quarters.
The Commission elevates in its document the inflation forecast for the euro zone to 3.5%, well above the historical objective of the ECB to keep it close but below 2%.
For Spain, the data is 3.6% this exercise, but it would fall drastically up to 1.1%, in lower data from the continent after the Latvian.
This course will be very hectic.
The prices are above the expected and the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, did not close the door just a few days ago that there may be a rise in interest rates this same course, something that she even discarded sharply.
The decisions of it about bond purchases are also critical, because the ECB has been these years the main buyer of Spanish debt in the secondary market.
Any variation can have effects.
Risk premiums are under control, and the treasure is moving very well in its outputs, but a changing scenario can have unpredictable results.
Brussels relies, in any case, in which 2023 returns to much more controlled levels, around 1.7%.
This 2022, in addition, is in theory of the last year with the frozen stability pact and there is a very intense open debate on when to return to ‘normality’, but above all how to change the current tax rules.
Gentiloni, like Nadia Calviño or France, advocates more flexible and personalized standards, perhaps with indicators and specific paths for each country, depending on its circumstances.
There is a certain consensus, but not unanimously, in which criteria like the current ones, with a debt limit of 60%, have little sense when almost all countries are above 100% of GDP.
Spain, specifically, around 120% after all measures to alleviate the effects of pandemic and confines.
In Brussels there is no specific concern for Spanish growth, although they did not have just understood why the numbers are not better, after the loss of 2020. Employment, specifically, should drag better figures, but it is not like that.
Spain Fía an important part of recovery and stabilization to community funds, hence the urgency of asking for it, to approve measures (such as labor reform) and to be fulfilled milestones.
It is expected that the next disbursement (officially the second, because although two games have arrived the first one is known as pre-financing and was almost discounted) is something more complicated, because it implies reforms and milestones that are not yet closed.
The labor reform was one, perhaps the most significant.
And although the Gentiloni team is approved still has an eye on the possible judicial resolutions if the PP insists on challenging the vote of Congress.
The international conjuncture, however, is a cause for concern.
Prices, energy, production chains or situation in Ukraine, with the risk of military conflict that would involve additional sanctions, tensions and interruptions in a large part of the planet.
All factors that would hit Europe and that they would bring additional doubts for countries that depend on Tourism and ours.
If the forecasts are a delicate exercise under normal conditions, they have become almost impossible with the pandemic.
At the beginning of July, the Commission increased by three tenths (from 5.9 to 6.2%) the estimate of this year for our country, but it fell in half a point (from 6.8% to 6.3) that of 2022
. And that after having increased at a half point of blow them in May.
In November there was a 1.6-point ax.
And now an improvement of a tenth for 2022. Elements to fuck with tweezers The result of the models, especially when the INE is having to make corrections of an unprecedented magnitude in its recent history.
