Nothing prevents President Faustin-Archange Touadéra from remaining in power in the Central African Republic. The draft new Constitution, which should allow him to run for a third term in 2025, was approved by referendum on July 30 by an overwhelming majority. According to the results presented by the National Election Authority on Monday August 7, the yes vote won 95.27%, with a participation rate of 61.10%, despite the boycott of the opposition, which denounces a “masquerade”.

In the absence of recognized independent observers, these figures are difficult to verify. This does not prevent Fidèle Gouandjika, minister adviser to the Central African presidency, from rejoicing: the participation was higher than that of “all the presidential and referendum elections that the country has known,” he says. The adoption of the text will mark the true date of the independence of our country and the beginning of a new democracy with Chinese characteristics”.

For the first time in an electoral process in Africa, the paramilitaries of the Wagner Group became openly involved in the vote, providing security and logistical support. “The vote took the form of a plebiscite in favor of President Touadéra, analyzes Charles Bouessel, researcher at the International Crisis Group. Hardly anyone had read the new Basic Law, which was tailor-made to meet the obstacles faced by the regime. »

In addition to the end of the limitation of presidential terms, extended from five to seven years, the text makes three major changes. First, the Constitutional Court, which had opposed the referendum project, is transformed into a Council whose majority of members are appointed by the authorities. Then, the National Assembly loses its right to control mining contracts. “We remember that the former tenant of the perch, Karim Meckassoua, had been dismissed for having wanted to take a closer look at the agreements signed with the Russians”, recalls Charles Bouessel. Finally, the creation of a post of vice-president, the second person in the state, who replaces the president in the event of a vacancy in power, completes the weakening of the other institutions in this hyper-presidential regime.

A blow to the opposition

“The redistribution of positions will allow both President Touadéra to compensate those who hoped to succeed him and to reward the most loyal”, continues the researcher. Simplice Mathieu Sarandji, the current president of the National Assembly, is a big favorite for the vice-presidency. Historical companion of President Touadéra since the University of Bangui, he was in turn his secretary general, his chief of staff and then his prime minister.

Sidelined for publicly doubting the propriety of the referendum, Mr. Sarandji eventually returned to the campaign after changing his mind after returning from a trip to Russia. Omnipresent during the referendum campaign, Evariste Ngamana, current first vice-president of the National Assembly, could succeed him on the perch, unless the head of state creates a surprise with a gesture of openness.

On the side of the opposition, the blow is hard. Some of its main figures find themselves disqualified from the race for the presidential election of 2025 by a new constitutional provision prohibiting dual nationals from running for the highest office. Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Crépin Mboli-Goumba, who respectively have French and American nationalities, are the main concerned.

The capacity for harm of the armed groups that controlled most of the territory five years ago has been considerably reduced by the combined action of Wagner’s paramilitaries and former rebels who have become ministers. “They seem too weakened by internal dissension to pose a threat, at least in the short term,” said John Lechner, a journalist and researcher specializing in the Central African Republic.

Wagner better established than ever

President Touadéra therefore has a boulevard in front of him. “It is the consecration of its mode of governance. Despite the abuses committed by the Russians and the national army against civilians, his strategy ended up paying off both nationally and internationally,” notes Charles Bouessel. After unsuccessfully trying to obtain the departure of Wagner’s mercenaries by playing the card of diplomatic isolation, Western chancelleries are now trying the soft way.

After months of frosty relations, French President Emmanuel Macron met twice with his Central African counterpart, whom he nevertheless called “Wagner’s hostage” in May 2022. “There is really no alternative “, sighs a diplomat. The campaigns hostile to France have since waned, while Frenchman Rémy Quignolot, accused of espionage and detained for nearly two years in Bangui, was repatriated for health reasons.

“The effects are felt on the economy, confides a former collaborator of the head of state. Salaries are paid thanks to the World Bank, and the IMF has softened its position by granting new credit facilities after the intervention of the West. “They swapped the stick for the carrot, but without obtaining concrete guarantees,” adds an observer. Indeed, on the ground, the Wagner Group, better established than ever, quickly denied the rumors about its possible departure that had been sparked by the short-lived rebellion of Yevgueni Prigojine against Moscow. “Wagner’s activities depend on the agreements signed with President Touadéra, recalls Charles Bouessel. If the president stays, they stay too. »