Emmanuel Macron faces the ghost of an ungovernable and troubled France. The opposition to the French president begins to prepare strategies in order to overthrow his government, headed by the prime minister, Elisabeth Borne, after the approval yesterday by decree of the unpopular pension reform, while the tension in the streets increases.
The decision to carry out this reform without the vote of the Assembly, whose main measure is to delay the retirement age from the current 62 years to 64, has opened a political and social crisis with unpredictable consequences. Two parties have presented motions of no confidence that will be voted on Monday, although with little chance of success.
It is the only way they have to stop the reform. One has been presented by the ultra-right group Marine Le Pen (National Rally), and another has been formalized by the group of regionalist deputies Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories (Liot, in its French acronym). They allege that this reform does not have democratic legitimacy and that it has been approved by force, without a vote.
If any of these proposals manage to go ahead, Macron would have to appoint another prime minister and the government would fall. He could also dissolve the Assembly and call new elections, although this option seems less likely. Macron was re-elected in the presidential elections almost a year ago, but did not achieve a parliamentary majority in the legislative elections that were held two months later. Already then it was glimpsed that this scenario of chaos could occur, since the polls left a very fragmented parliament.
Marine Le Pen’s motion has little chance of success because it does not have the support of other left-wing parties. In fact, she has already presented others, without success. Yes, she has said that she will vote for those of the other groups in order to overthrow the Government. Liot’s, with only 20 deputies, could get more support. Precisely because she stands at neither extreme, she could rally support from both.
In order for it to be voted on in the Assembly, it must have the signature of 58 deputies. Liot’s has been signed by 91 of five parliamentary groups. The radical left of La Francia Insumisa has joined the latter, considering that it has a better chance of prospering than if they presented their own.
In order for it to go ahead, it needs the vote of an absolute majority: 289 deputies. To the 88 deputies of Le Pen and the 149 from the left, they would need to add at least another 30 from the Republican party (it has 60 seats), but they have already said that they will not support any motion and will abstain to “not add more chaos to chaos.” So, for the moment, the accounts do not work out.
This conservative party, Macron’s only support in the seats, is once again the key to unlock Parliament. The president decided to resort to article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows a law to be approved without a vote, since he was not sure of having his support to approve the pension law. In principle they were going to do it, but as the time for the vote approached, things were less clear.
For Macron, resorting to this urgent option was the safest in the seats, because he did not take risks, but the most dangerous in the streets. After two months of protests, general strikes and demonstrations, France is in the last hours a hive of angry citizens. The protests have multiplied since yesterday throughout France, with violence and riots. There were 300 arrests, barricades were organized and containers and part of the 10,000 tons of garbage accumulated in Paris were burned after a week and a half of the garbage collectors’ strike.
The ghost of the yellow vests reappears, the protest movement that collapsed France in 2018. This Friday morning the protests and blockades on roads and railways have been reproduced in some cities across the country. The Minister of the Interior, Gérarld Darmanin, has criticized the attack on official buildings and the headquarters of some Macronista deputies. So far this movement had proceeded without incident.
The unions have called a new day of strike and protests next Thursday (it is the ninth since January) and the leader of the Unsubmissive France, Jean Luc Melenchon, has encouraged “spontaneous mobilizations” against the reform. This afternoon a new demonstration was called in the Place de la Concorde in Paris, which has become a symbol of the revolt against the approval of this reform. It is in this place where the last Kings of France were guillotined.
The pension reform is the key reform of the Emmanuel Macron mandate, whose popularity has plummeted. The citizens accuse him of being arrogant and of being more and more distant from the citizenry. This is the second and last term of Macron, who wants to pass as a reformist president, who changed France.
The controversial pension reform is not new, it was part of his electoral campaign. His intention was to delay the retirement age until 65, but he gave in and left it at 64. The president maintains that it is necessary to guarantee the system, which is already accumulating deficits and the French debt is skyrocketing. Yesterday, during the council of ministers in which he made the decision, he warned that the financial and economic risks of not applying this reform “are too great.”
Citizens criticize that it is an unfair law that penalizes the most vulnerable workers. The OECD, the economic think tank that represents developed economies and is based in Paris, warned this Friday that this reform is “absolutely necessary” for the country. “The Government has to stand firm,” said its general secretary: “The population is aging and we have to assume that we have to work longer.”
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