Four African presidents on their way to kyiv and Moscow to try to mediate between Putin and Zelensky

What are the chances of African leaders succeeding where all other attempts at mediation between Russia and Ukraine have failed? “We hope to create an electric shock, but this is only the beginning of the beginning, the raising of the curtain of a play which will be played, if the two parts want it, in several acts”, explained with caution, a few days before the confirmation of this trip, Jean-Yves Ollivier, the man behind this peace initiative prepared since December 2022.

The poster of mediators has lost its prestige in recent days. Of the seven African heads of state planned for the trip, there should ultimately be only four. Friday, June 16, the presidents of South Africa, Senegal, Zambia and the Comoros – which currently chairs the African Union – are expected in Kiev for a meeting with their Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. They will be accompanied by the Egyptian Prime Minister, President Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi having canceled his visit at the last moment, and the head of Ugandan diplomacy, whose Head of State Yoweri Museveni apologized after being tested positive to Covid-19.

The next day, the same must go to Saint Petersburg to meet with the Russian Vladimir Putin. Initially on the trip and known for his closeness to Mr. Ollivier, the Congolese President, Denis Sassou-Nguesso, who declared on Monday that “in the face of such a tragedy, Africa cannot remain silent or indifferent”, finally canceled his participation. , after requesting a postponement. “The safety of heads of state is an issue, especially because of the train journey between Poland and Ukraine,” said a source within the trip organization.

Carried out at a time when Ukraine is engaged in a military counter-offensive and when Russia seems unwilling to compromise, this attempt to establish a dialogue between belligerents may seem doomed to failure. But for Jean-Yves Ollivier, craftsman of this offer of mediation with the Brazzaville Foundation which he directs, “it is when things are activated militarily that the opportunities for peace are often the strongest”.

Stamped “Francafrique”

At 78, this French businessman whose fortune was made in the trading of raw materials has one of the best-stocked address books among African leaders. Close in particular to the Congolese Denis Sassou-Nguesso, the South African Cyril Ramaphosa like other figures of his party, the African National Congress (ANC), the Senegalese Macky Sall or the Togolese Faure Gnassingbé, Mr. Ollivier has, beyond his business, made a name in parallel diplomacy in Lebanon, the Comoros, but especially in southern Africa where he participated in 1987, before the end of apartheid, in the organization of an exchange of prisoners between Angolan soldiers and Namibian separatists against a South African officer.

Mr. Ollivier, who was integrated into the African networks of Jacques Chirac, is however kept at a distance by Emmanuel Macron. Stamped “Françafrique”, the intermediary is also a consultant for Rosatom, the Russian civil nuclear giant.

The attempt at mediation was revealed on May 16 by the South African president, who has since been responsible for obtaining the support of his Chinese, Indian and Brazilian counterparts. During a telephone interview on June 3 with Emmanuel Macron, Cyril Ramaphosa managed to obtain support from France, even if it is only minimal.

“There is no direct contact and support is a bit forced, but in the context of deteriorating relations between France and Africa, the Elysée could not oppose a project led by presidents Africans”, analyzes the source within the organization of the trip. The Brazzaville Foundation has spoken more with the State Department in Washington or the Foreign Office in London, although both countries have provided only “cautious” support in the words of the South African president.

An objective more economic than political

The Western chancelleries have reason to wonder about the speech that each of the heads of state will carry, the African nations having once again exposed their divisions on this war during the vote at the UN on February 23 of a non-binding resolution demanding ” the immediate withdrawal” of Russian troops from Ukraine. Cyril Ramaphosa appears today as the most inclined to support Russia’s positions when the Zambian Hakainde Hichilema, whose country had voted in favor of the resolution, would lean more on the side of Kiev. “While Westerners no longer talk to Putin, Africans are the only ones today who can talk to both sides,” said one member of a delegation.

If bringing the two belligerents around the same table today seems like an impossible mission, African leaders could in the first place be content to satisfy the main objective displayed by the Brazzaville Foundation, which is much more economic than political. In a statement dated May 16, the latter indicated that the aim of this initiative is to establish “a platform for dialogue, aimed at securing agreements to release cargoes of cereals and critical fertilizers for shipment to the United States. Africa, thereby mitigating the potential risk of famine on the continent”.

African countries remain extremely dependent on Russian and Ukrainian cereals and fertilizers – Egypt is thus the world’s largest importer of wheat – and implicitly lay the accusation of who will be responsible for a food crisis on the continent.

After saying he was ready to deliver free cereals to them when “almost nothing is going to African countries”, Vladimir Putin, four days before his scheduled meeting with this delegation, reiterated his threat to withdraw from the agreement concluded in July 2022 allowing the export of Ukrainian cereals, on the grounds that the clauses on the export of fertilizers produced by Russia are not respected.

“A negotiation always begins with technical exchanges”, relativizes the source quoted above, assuring that “points of convergence have already been negotiated upstream. According to her, the calendar is decisive in convincing Vladimir Putin. “If he wants the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg [planned for July 26-29] to be a success, he cannot let African leaders leave empty-handed. Within one of the delegations, it was estimated before departure that for the mission to be a minimum success, it should allow the release of a few prisoners from both sides.