In Moscow, Russia and Algeria renew their "strategic partnership"

Side by side facing the challenges of the world. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune met his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on Thursday (June 15th) during a state visit to Moscow staged to project the image of a Russia still courted by the countries of the South and that of of an Algeria on the diplomatic offensive. The two heads of state signed a “declaration on a deep strategic partnership”, thus renewing a document of the same type initialed in 2001. In addition to the hydrocarbons sector, the strengthening of cooperation will relate to the military field, according to the agency. Tass which mentions joint maneuvers, technology transfers and co-productions.

The Algerian press had emphatically announced President Tebboune’s trip, with the official Algeria press service (APS) agency praising “exceptional relations based on friendship”. While Russia, which is hosting the St. Petersburg Economic Forum at the same time, wants to count its friends and dispel any impression of isolation on the international scene, the shadow of the war in Ukraine hangs over this visit.

Since the outbreak of the conflict in February 2022, Algeria has continued to spare Moscow by abstaining from the various votes on United Nations resolutions denouncing Russian “aggression”. Admittedly, the strategic relationship is not without clouds, as illustrated by the criticisms addressed by Mr. Tebboune against the action of the private security company Wagner in Mali. The cost of this presence, he declared at the end of December to Le Figaro, “would be more useful” in the service of the “development of the Sahel”.

But Algiers’ reservations about non-state military entities – Mr. Tebboune had also denounced in January 2020 the role of “mercenaries” (implying those of Wagner but without quoting them) targeting at the time the Libyan capital, Tripoli – have not, however, unduly disrupted security cooperation.

Honeymoon

The Algerian National People’s Army (ANP), whose generations of cadres were trained after 1962 in Soviet academies, obtained 73% of its arms acquisitions abroad from Moscow between 2018 and 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. And as Algiers steps up its military modernization drive – with a 2023 budget rocketing to $23 billion, up 120% from 2022 – its eyes will once again be on Russia.

But the bogging down of Moscow’s troops in Ukraine and its impact on the Russian defense industry is a game-changer. “It is very likely that the Russians do not have the capacity to provide the weapons desired by the Algerians, underlines Isabelle Werenfels, specialist in the Maghreb at the German Institute for International Affairs and Security (SWP), based in Berlin. And outside of Russia, only the Europeans, the Chinese, a little Turkey and maybe India can supply them. »

Among Europeans, while any deal with France – which already meets 5.2% of Algerian arms needs – is politically sensitive, Germany, Italy or the UK may be potential suppliers.

Another field where Algeria can see its relationship with Europe become denser at the risk of disturbing Moscow is that of energy. The issue has gained urgency as Europeans seek alternatives to Russian gas amid war in Ukraine. Today the source of 11% of Europe’s gas imports, Algeria is destined to expand its status as a supplier of the Old Continent in the long term, even if its ability to immediately raise its level of exports is limited. .

With Italy, in the midst of a diplomatic honeymoon with Algiers, projects are multiplying, notably via gas pipelines linking the two countries. Germany, for its part, is preparing to import green hydrogen from Algeria.

Objective Brics

In this context, Mr. Tebboune’s visit to Moscow aims to “reassure the Russians, to let them know that Algeria is still there”, observes Ms. Werenfels: “This visit does not mean that Algeria is falling into the camp. of Russia. Above all, it allows Algerians to counterbalance what they undertake in other areas. Their message is, “We have all the options.” »

This visit also comes at a key moment in the evolution of the North Africa and Middle East region. The emergence of a new pole of development around the economic ambitions of Saudi Arabia is indeed raising worried questions in Algeria. “The involvement of the Maghreb in this ambitious project does not seem to be on the agenda,” wrote the Algerian daily L’Expression on June 6. […] Suffice to say that [the Maghreb countries] are quite simply summoned to get up to speed if they do not want to be marginalized. »

Also Algeria, confronted since 2021 with the deterioration of its relationship with Morocco – which weighs down any hope of economic dynamics in the Maghreb – and more recently with a cooling of its relations with Saudi Arabia, must find new leeway.

His campaign to join the Brics forum (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) finds all its meaning here. Russia supports his candidacy. Hence the importance of the presence on Thursday of Mr. Tebboune in Moscow alongside Mr. Putin, as well as Friday at the Saint-Persbourg forum to sell the image of an Algeria presented as rich in new opportunities. investments through its non-hydrocarbon diversification projects. “Algeria is experiencing an unprecedented economic renaissance,” Mr. Tebboune lyrically launched to Russian businessmen on Wednesday.