It is almost a commonplace that abstention has broken records from election to election. This evening, 53% of voters remained in their seats. This is a new sign that institutions are reaching the end of their rope.
Reverse engineering. Running backwards. After the dramatic decline in LREM deputies, this will not be the case for the next week.
The President of the Republic has one question. Next Sunday, he will have to answer one: Will he be able to vote with Ensemble – Modem of Francois Barou and Horizons Edouard Philippe? – for the absolute majority? According to projections, this is still possible. However, it is not certain. One thing is certain: Emmanuel Macron’s second term of five years promises to be more complicated. He had no concerns about getting his messages across in his first five year term. However, he will have to deal with his supporters in the second. Even if he doesn’t get an absolute majority, he can still compromise with other members of the Assembly. The French wanted to rebalance power.
Jean-Luc Melenchon said that “The Nupes passed in a remarkable way the first test it faced.” The projections from the polling institutes show that the Nupes was key-key with Ensemble in the first round of elections. Insoumis leader, however, was 3rd in the presidential election. The Nupes could send more 200 deputies and would be the third man to the ‘Assembly. This has been done before for the Insoumis leader’s relatives, such as Sophia Chikirou or Alexis Corbiere.
Are they able to be the majority in the hemicycle’s majority? The seat projections by the institutes show that the Nupes will receive fewer deputies than support from the President of Republic next Sunday. These projections are just that. A victory for the left is possible on paper since it will be represented in 500 constituencies during the second round. Jean-Luc Melenchon will be imagining the “third round”, which will take place the day after the presidential elections. It will feature Macron and Melenchon. It will be a fierce battle between these two sides. The battle between the two sides has already begun tonight. On the Nupes side Macronie is accused in secret of having an austerity plan to reach the 3% deficit target. The president’s friends predict an explosion in taxes and debt if Melenchon is re-elected with his friends.
Marine Le Pen clearly intended this: By refusing to join the Reconquest party Eric Zemmour’s alliance, Marine Le Pen wanted to end the game with her far right rival. It works: In the Var Eric Zemmour, third place is taken. The second round will be against an RN candidate and a presidential majority candidate.
Marine le Pen has more good news: She finishes this round with over 54%. However, due to a lack of the required 50%, she will have wait until the second round to celebrate being re-elected. Is she likely to have a parliamentary committee this time? She said she was almost certain, but it is not guaranteed by all institutes.
It’s still a terrible evening for LR. Some of the party’s young members, some of whom had been running for the presidency, were defeated in the first round. Julien Aubert and Guillaume Larrive in Yonne are two examples. According to projections, the Republicans, which have about a hundred outgoing members, can still hope to save or win 80 seats. The most optimistic of us would like to be able to play a key role if Emmanuel Macron or his allies didn’t have a majority.
Richard Ferrand, just after the first round in the presidential election, still spoke of “the common values between the Walkers’ and Jean-Luc Melenchon”. The Republican Front was undoubtedly still represented in the ballot boxes. Emmanuel Macron won with 58%. There is no further evidence tonight. The troops of the president didn’t hear a common song on what attitude they should adopt in the event that Nupes and RN clash: each case for one, no voice in the RN (i.e. formula de Melenchon (in the presidential election) for others… Socialists were touched to see their old comrades from Macronie so lacking this once common reflex.
Emmanuel Macron warned that the ministers who threw their support behind universal suffrage at Matignon’s municipal, regional and departmental elections did not deserve to be punished. Members of his close guard could also be subject to the axe, including Clement Beaune (Minister Delegate for Europe), who was left in Paris by Caroline Mecary, the Nupes candidate.
Amelie de Montchalin was appointed to the highly strategic position of Minister for Ecological Transition. Jerome Guedj, another representative from Nupes is also in Essonne, leading by ten points. The Prime Minister is still far from having completed her electoral baptism in Calvados. Elisabeth Borne doesn’t have enough lead to allow her to calmly move on to the second round. However, most ministers are doing better, especially Gerald Darmanin and Olivier Dussopt.
Noting that the Head of State’s faithful are also in a delicate situation, we should mention Richard Ferrand, President of the National Assembly in Finistere, and Christophe Castaner (the boss of the deputies), who are both in Finistere. LREM, in the Alpes-de-Haute-Provence. Last but not least, a symbol of disappointment is Jean-Michel Blanquer (ex-Minister of National Education), in Loiret.