Pedro Sánchez and Yolanda Díaz have signed a government program for the next four years. A program with more than 200 promises of different sizes that would set the guidelines for the legislature. The problem is that this is a roadmap for a Government and that Government does not exist at the moment. Sánchez and Díaz assume that they will once again form a progressive coalition Executive but to date they only have 158 secure votes in support of the investiture of the socialist leader -121 from the PSOE, 31 from Sumar and 6 from EH Bildu-, in the absence of 17 to reach the absolute majority or, in the worst case, of 14 to overcome in the second vote the 171 noes that Sánchez’s aspiration is guaranteed.
Sánchez and Díaz have put the cart before the oxen because their pact, their offer and all their promises are at the expense of the allies they hope to have agree with them and, above all, that it includes exactly what none of the He wanted to make two explicit this Tuesday: the satisfaction of the demands that Puigdemont has raised, that is, an amnesty law that erases everything that happened in the process; a firm commitment, with a vigilant rapporteur, to hold a self-determination referendum in Catalonia and an immediate solution to what they consider their fiscal deficit.
Since last July 23, PSOE and Sumar have negotiated the terms of their agreement, stretching the gum to infinity and even trying to make it seem that their pact could be in danger. The thing was to give it emotion. This Tuesday they finally staged it before a very large audience of faithful from both parties: ministers, secretaries of State, spokespersons, members of their respective teams… and supporting journalists who were not allowed to ask questions. If they had been able to do so, they would undoubtedly have influenced precisely what neither Sánchez nor Díaz wanted to say and which, in reality, is the key to what politically marks the future of the country.
At the moment, one of its possible partners, the PNV, which has five votes in Congress, has already shown its misgivings about the PSOE and Sumar pact. The Basque nationalists who make up a Christian Democratic party at the antipodes of populism and left-wing radicalism are haunted by the suspicion that a good part of the measures that, especially Yolanda Díaz, presented as definitive and without turning a corner, represent a invasion of their powers. In addition to the displeasure aroused by the announcement that the “misnamed taxes on banking and energy” are intended to be made permanent without prior negotiation and, consequently, without guarantees of respect for the Economic Concert and Agreement. PNV already warns that it will not accept the “imposition” of an agenda in which it has had no part and that may clash with its own.
Another formation that undoubtedly cannot be classified as the hard left is Junts. The heir party of the old Convergència, now de facto led by the fugitive Carles Puigdemont, has its main interests precisely in what Sánchez and Díaz are hiding. This Tuesday, Junts chose not to make any assessment of the bilateral agreement between PSOE and Sumar. As if disdaining him. However, it is enough to remember that this formation chose to abstain when the coalition Government brought to the Chamber in the last legislature the extraordinary tax on financial entities and large energy companies, the well from which the couple signing the pact hopes to draw a good part of the money that he will need to finance the rest of his many promises. From there and the corporate tax. In its electoral program, Junts demanded, in addition to a reduction in this tax for SMEs, transferring the management of all taxes to the Generalitat.
These parties have not commented on the star measure of the pact, the reduction of the working day to 37.5 hours, but without a doubt both will be aware of how it would mainly affect SMEs and will bet that such a proposal is negotiated in the framework of social dialogue. This is between unions and employers. Judging by Díaz’s words, the Government’s intention is to approve by law a first reduction and, subsequently, to address a second phase of reduction with unions and employers. It is precisely for this reason that the position of the hypothetical allies of a future Government is key: the law would not go ahead if the rejection of forces such as PP, Vox and UPN is combined with the no or abstention of parties such as the PNV and Junts.
Nor has ERC agreed, at least with the forms. Sánchez and Díaz, in the presentation of their pact, have taken it for granted that they will govern again. This point is what Esquerra wanted to clarify immediately. The Republicans have taken it upon themselves to remind both that their agreement will be of little use if it does not have the support of the independence movement. In this way, if what PSOE and Sumar intended was to pressure the rest of the possible allies with the signing of their pact, they have not obtained the expected success for now. With its electoral result, there is no roller that is worth it.
The security with which both have taken their future Government for granted has given rise to the PP to demand that the president of Congress, Francina Armengol, now set the date for the investiture debate. The popular ones believe that if Sánchez and Díaz are so clear about their survival at the head of the Executive, they cannot wait another day for the former to confirm, with the votes ahead, that he has the confidence of Congress. Everything else is dizzying and wasting time.
