Republicans can’t capitalize much on inflation and the situation on the southern border. The Democrats are doing better than expected. They will probably lose the majority in the House of Representatives. But they have a good chance of defending the Senate.
Republicans dreamed of a red wave sweeping Democrats out of office across the country. The Democrats of retaining majorities in both houses of Congress. Neither will likely come true. But one thing is already clear: Biden was not punished for his policies. The Democrats were supported. The Republicans will probably win the House of Representatives, but a landslide victory looks different. The forecasts were bleak. For Biden, this election night should therefore feel like a victory.
Many US voters did not vote strictly along party lines, instead splitting their votes by candidate. In the gubernatorial election in the embattled state of Georgia, for example, the Republicans let ex-President Donald Trump’s candidate be rebuffed in the primaries – and instead opted for Brian Kemp, who now confidently defended the office. At the same time, it looks like a runoff between Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Trump’s candidate, former American football star Herschel Walker. It would take place on December 6th.
Or Ohio. J.D. Vance won – a Trump candidate but better known for his authentic understanding of workers, having written a book about it. The governor is also a Republican – but the Democrats won in several constituencies for the House of Representatives. In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman captured a Senate seat from Republicans. He also did better in deep red constituencies than US President Joe Biden two years ago.
The majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track and that inflation is the biggest problem. Biden is also not a popular president. A surprising number of Democratic candidates were confirmed and re-elected. The situation on the southern border, where historically many people come north without border controls, has not prevented this either.
The conservative course of the Supreme Court, which Trump had initiated by filling the Supreme Court during his presidency, apparently mobilized people across the country. Women in particular are already feeling the consequences. Abortion rights, health insurance and the “future of democracy” were the most important issues for Democrats. Several states held successful referendums to introduce abortion laws.
Presidents since Ronald Reagan in the 1980s have lost an average of 31 seats in the House of Representatives in their first midterm elections. With Biden, it will be less. The governing party lost an average of two seats in the Senate. Biden may even expand his majority there slightly. This points to the recognition of the results achieved – i.e. how he deals with the crises. It could also be a sign that more voters than previously thought are rejecting Republicans’ tendency to unconditionally support Trump and his agenda.
The question in the key Pennsylvania Senate race was whether moderate suburban Republicans would vote for their party’s candidate, Mehmet Oz – or see him as a Trump soldier and therefore stay home, possibly even voting for John Fetterman. White workers, for example, who can identify more with the Democrat, who usually appears in a hoodie and jeans, than with the television doctor Dr. Oz. You chose Fetterman.
This will have internal party consequences for Trump. A possible competitor in the bid for the presidential nomination is Ron DeSantis. He won his governor’s race in Florida very clearly and even convinced the previously democratic constituency of Miami-Dade. So clearly that on election night Trump publicly warned him not to apply for the presidential candidacy. “If he competes, it could be very painful for him,” he said, and threatened to reveal about his private life.
Trump has been flirting with another application since his election defeat to Joe Biden in 2020. He could announce that next week, in Mar-a-Lago – in Florida. There DeSantis proudly announced that he had “redrawn the political map” with his victory. It is true that many election deniers who followed Trump’s agenda were elected. Others were rejected. The Republicans should therefore ask themselves where the hoped-for red wave actually got stuck – and who is responsible for it. In any case, string puller Trump does not look like a beaming winner. Biden, on the other hand, does.
(This article was first published on Wednesday, November 09, 2022.)
