Islamic State defeated in the Middle East, has the heart of jihadism shifted to the Sahel? Terrorist organizations established in the region cause population movements. In Africa, the next caliphate?, published in February by Tallandier editions and of which we offer you an excerpt here, Luis Martinez, political scientist and specialist in the Maghreb and the Middle East at Sciences Po, details the risks, in particular humanitarian, linked to the expansion of jihadism in the Sahel.
Like other regions in the world, Africa is confronted with the violent spread of Salafist jihadism and the political project of establishing Islamic emirates on the setbacks of postcolonial nation states.
For the authorities of the Sahel countries as for France, the motivations of the jihadist insurgency have been difficult to understand. Many believed that the violence in Mali would not spill over to its neighbours. The attacks against the security forces, the massacres of civilians and the testimonies of residents in the areas controlled by the jihadists initially caused a wave of panic and a feeling of bewilderment at the speed of their expansion and the ease of their consolidation.
In the Liptako Gourma region, for example, the state is absent and there is little humanitarian aid because of threats against NGOs. The region is characterized by a very high demography, with 15-year-olds representing approximately 50% of the population. Many no longer have access to school because of threats to teachers. The Islamic State therefore finds there a pool of young fighters confronted with endemic poverty.
In 2018, almost 900,000 people, almost 10% of the population of these regions, were considered “severely food insecure”. The effects of climate change, drought and floods are destructive and affect the economic activities of these territories, mainly agriculture and livestock. With more than 9 million cattle and 25 million sheep and goats, there are many conflicts between herders and farmers due to the expansion of agricultural land to the detriment of the former. In addition to these land disputes, there are conflicts between community groups fighting for control of local power and illicit activities.
In return for their allegiance, the jihadist groups authorize the local populations to disobey the prohibitions enacted by the authorities concerning hunting in protected areas, fishing, transhumance and gold panning. They collect zakat, or tax, on livestock. These recipes attract all sorts of people willing to join jihadist groups if the latter generate lucrative activities: former highway robbers and bandits find in these jihad “managers” a salutary outlet by giving a religious meaning to criminal practices.
Cattle rustling and kidnapping of people, for example, are becoming integrated activities in the jihad economy to the delight of criminals, finding advantages in the territories managed by jihadists that they did not have before. Considered bandits or criminals by the authorities, they become entrepreneurs who contribute to the economy of the “liberated territories”.
Agriculture and livestock farming employ 70% of the population in the Sahel and the effects of climate change are fueling conflicts and tensions in regions where land issues are recurrent. IPCC projections suggest a 20% reduction in harvests over each decade by 2100, even as the population reaches 500 million.
In Niger, for example, with the lowest urban population in the region (18%), but with the most dynamic population growth (61 million inhabitants in 2050 according to estimates), the question of food security arises. with acuity. The violence has driven millions of people to flee their villages and join makeshift camps for internally displaced people. Hundreds of thousands of children are deprived of school and become future recruits. In some countries, such as in the Lake Chad region, stronghold of Boko Haram, the school enrollment rate for children does not exceed 7%. For civilian populations, the jihadist insurrection has aggravated already numerous evils.
In July 2022, the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), a United Nations agency, issued a warning cry: the Sahel is going through one of its worst crises with millions of displaced people, but it is nevertheless the one of the most overlooked.
About three million people have fled the region due to clashes between jihadist insurgencies and armed forces. In less than ten years, the number of uprooted people has increased from 217,000 in 2013 to 2.1 million in 2021. In Burkina Faso, the North and North-West regions are the most affected and internally displaced persons are estimated at 1 .5 million. In 2021 alone, 500,000 people have fled the region due to random attacks by armed groups against civilians, rapes, executions and the destruction of civilian infrastructure.
Filippo Grandi, the High Commissioner for Refugees, underlines, after a visit to the region, the deterioration of the situation and estimates at 29 million the number of people, half of whom are children, in need of assistance and vital protection. “The emergency,” he said, “is here in the Sahel, where people are suffering, being massacred, where women are being raped and where children cannot go to school. We need to intervene in the Sahel before this crisis becomes unmanageable. »
The violence in this region has only accentuated and aggravated the suffering of the most vulnerable populations. In 2020, UNICEF pointed out that 5 million people were in a situation of food insecurity in the region (Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso) and that 700,000 children under the age of 5 could suffer from severe acute malnutrition. In the Lake Chad basin, the insecurity inherent in the jihadist insurgency led by Boko Haram has caused the flight of 2.8 million people, mainly Nigerians, and exposed the most vulnerable to threats of food insecurity. In northeast Nigeria, more than eight million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. In his book, Christian Seignobos points out that Boko Haram’s control over “a large part of the Lake’s resources” has led the States of the region to ban the exploitation and marketing of products from the latter in order to prevent the jihadist insurgency to generate revenue.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that 5.5 million people are at risk in the Lake Chad Basin (Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria). In Chad, the IOM (International Organization for Migration) estimates that half of the population (360,000 inhabitants) of this administrative province has left this region: “This is a worrying trend, because displacements have become not only recurrent, but also numerous and prolonged due to the deterioration of the security and environmental situation, “says one. Indeed, over the past forty years, the area of ??Lake Chad has increased from 35,000 square kilometers to 2,500 square kilometers, causing a scarcity of resources for the populations who live on the islets and live from fishing.
Like Algeria in the 1990s, the education sector is a prime target for jihadist groups, as it is very easy to reach and with minimal risk of resistance. The assassinations of school principals or teachers in front of their students are at work.
Accused of schooling colonialism or the “white”, of collaborating with the security forces, teachers are chronic targets of jihadists. Many observers point out that education is the main issue in the war of ideological competition: for the jihadists, the teaching of French must be replaced by that of Arabic and the Koran. Girls and boys should be separated and female teachers veiled: “They say white school is haram. They prefer the Koranic school”, testifies a resident in the newspaper Le Sahélien.
In Burkina Faso, a UNICEF report estimates that in 2022, 5,700 schools will be closed due to jihadist violence and 350,000 the number of students deprived of school, mainly in the provinces of Soum, Oudalan and Loroum: “Not only are Islamist armed groups targeting teachers, students and schools in Burkina Faso committing war crimes, they are rolling back years of progress that has made it easier for children to access education. education,” said Lauren Seibert, researcher and author of a Human Rights Watch report.
UNICEF recalls that in 2020, in the Sahel region, “more than eight million children aged 6 to 14 [do not] attend school, i.e. nearly 55% of this age group” and that the destruction of schools only accentuates a fundamental structural problem. In Mali, the UN agency estimates that 1,664 schools have been closed, depriving 500,000 students of class, and more than 700 in Niger. In this country, most of the closed schools are in the Tillabéri region, in Liptako-Gourma, between Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, where the presence of the EIGS is very strong.
An OCHA report points out that: “Killings of civilians, targeted assassinations against customary and religious leaders, kidnappings, extortion of goods and livestock are frequent in this region”, forcing more than 100,000 people to flee . The Liptako-Gourma or “three borders” region is characterized by extreme poverty and by the youth of its population, half of whom are under 15 years old. A report resulting from joint work between UNICEF, the OECD and OCHA is full of data on this triangle of Liptako-Gourma, cross-border epicenter of the jihadist coalition led by EIGS.
* Luis Martinez is Research Director, Ceri, Sciences Po.
