After having suffered the largest GDP fall from the rich countries, Spain will be, together with the United States, the advanced economy that recovers faster from the crisis.
That is the forecast published today by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has raised its expectation of GDP growth at 1.1 points for Spain next year, until it leaves it in a spectacular 5.8%.
It is a lower figure – although by the minimum, just one tenth – to that of China, which has traditionally been the great world economy that has grown the most.
It is also the greatest growth number – again, for a tenth of advantage in relation to the US – of the large industrialized economies.
What nobody manages to overcome or from afar is the collapse of Spanish GDP in 2020, which was 10.8%.
The forecasts of the fund are limited to this year and who comes and, therefore, reflect the ‘rebound’ of the Covid-19 crisis.
In April, the institution published longer-term data that reflected that, after the growth of 2021 and 2022, GDP returned to its trend growth rates, until it falls 1.4% by 2025, an insufficient figure
To create employment.
These projections are in the review of the report of the institution ‘perspectives of the world economy’, which has been made public today, and that corrects the data carried out in the month of April.
The study, is also relatively optimistic about the evolution of salaries in Spain, since it places it, together with the United States, Canada and Great Britain – as countries in which salary increases “reflect a generally stable growth of the
Salaries this year “, despite the disadvantaged upsakers by the end of the confines.
In terms of inflation, however, the IMF softens the optimism it had in April.
If three months ago it rejected by plane any danger of rebounded in prices, now points out that there may be exceptions to that rule.
In fact, it recognizes that “we hope that inflation will remain high in 2022 in certain developing and emerging countries. The institution, however, does not declare in which economies that problem can be given, which attributes to energy prices and
Food, which tend to be seasonal. In developed countries, that problem should not be given, according to the Fund.
The study also notes that the VOC-19 is going to widen the gap between developed and developing countries, as the former manage to vaccinate their population while in the second immunization progresses very slowly.
The IMF, in addition, is aware that, if there is no immunization in developing countries, the virus will continue to mutate and the new variants will be more contagious and lethal.
Two months ago, the institution requested 50,000 million dollars (about 42,500 million euros) of international effort to assist in the vaccination of developing countries.
According to the Fund, if immunization was achieved worldwide next year – which would be possible with that contribution – world GDP would grow at 9 trillion dollars (7.6 trillion euros) by 2025.
