The British Conservatives in power kept the seat of ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson this Friday, July 21, but also suffered two setbacks elsewhere in highly scrutinized by-elections which put three chairs at stake, before the legislative elections next year.
These results are potentially ominous, because the Tories have lost two very large majorities in the constituencies of Somerton and Frome (south-west of England), and Selby and Ainsty (north). The former Prime Minister retained his seat after he resigned with a bang from Parliament due to the aftermath of “Partygate”, the Downing Street holiday scandal during the pandemic.
The surprising result of this partial indeed gave Steve Tuckwell the winner against Labor for the seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip (west of London), with 13,965 votes against 13,470. Labor was however well placed despite the unpopular forthcoming extension of the tax on polluting vehicles, decided by the town hall of his camp.
By contrast, the Tories largely lost the seat of Somerton and Frome. The incumbent, David Warburton, accused of cocaine consumption, was replaced by the Liberal Democrat Sarah Dyke, in favor of 21,187 votes against 10,179, while the Tories had a majority of 19,000 votes before the ballot.
And Labor stole the chair from Selby and Ainsty, in Yorkshire (northern England), where MP Nigel Adams slammed the door in the wake of Boris Johnson, of whom he is an ally. Yet again, the government had a comfortable majority of 20,000 votes. But Keir Mather finished in the lead with 16,456 ballots, against 12,295 for the Conservatives. This is the biggest reversal of majority for Labor in a partial since the Second World War.
The by-elections set the tone for the election period ahead, both for the majority, at its lowest in the polls after 13 years in power, and for Labour, well placed to enter Downing Street in 2024. This election “is a test of how the country feels […] after several years of crises in British politics, “said Jonathan Haynes, 37, voter in Uxbridge, where the Tories have kept their hand.
Speaking to Tory MPs on Wednesday night, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak acknowledged that the election was going to be a “tough battle” and called on his troops to unite, said one of the elected officials present at the meeting, Jonathan Gullis.
The 43-year-old Prime Minister, who entered Downing Street last October after the forced departures of Boris Johnson, carried away by scandals, and Liz Truss, dislodged in less than two months, may have avoided zero out of three, the balance sheet remains negative.
And although the ex-investment banker seemed to bring a semblance of stability and professionalism at the start, his confidence rating fell to an all-time low this week, with 65% of Britons having an unfavorable opinion of him according to the YouGov institute. The high inflation observed for a year, despite a slowdown to 7.9% in June, has weighed on purchasing power and Thursday’s elections coincided with strikes by railway workers and doctors in hospitals.
At the same time, Rishi Sunak praised his government’s action, welcoming that four “major” laws received royal assent on Thursday, including controversial texts on illegal immigration and the introduction of minimum service in the event of a strike. “When it comes to improving people’s lives, I’m focused on action, not words,” he said in a statement.
Reinforcing the idea of ??a defeat announced in the legislative elections next year, the popular Minister of Defense Ben Wallace announced last week that he would not stand again, like about fifty other deputies. He will also leave the government at the next reshuffle, expected in September. Unless Rishi Sunak renews his team this week to regain the initiative.
Opposite, Labour, well ahead in the polls, is preparing for power, under the leadership of Keir Starmer who has refocused his training after the period of the very left Jeremy Corbyn. Having become a cantor of budgetary responsibility, he however drew the wrath of some of his troops this week by opposing better social assistance for large families. Perceived as not very charismatic, he is judged unfavorably by the majority of the British.
