One million electric cars should be on Germany’s roads by 2020, at least that’s what the government at the time stipulated in 2010. With a two-year delay, the brand is now at least within reach. But with the goals for 2030, the next bankruptcy is already on the horizon.
The number of purely electric cars on German roads is approaching one million. The value could be reached at the beginning of 2023, as shown by model calculations by the industry expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, in the event of an extreme surge in registrations even in December. But this is rather unlikely, said Dudenhöffer. In 2010, the then federal government set the goal of one million electric cars for 2020.
According to the Federal Motor Transport Authority, 840,645 battery-powered electric passenger cars were registered as of October 1st. Almost 94,761 more were newly registered in November and October. But at the same time there are also cancellations, among other things due to sales abroad, but also after total losses. Around 21,000 cars disappeared from stock in the third quarter. With a similar magnitude in the fourth quarter, more than 86,000 pure electric cars would have to be newly registered in December to break the million mark – that would be almost twice the already very strong figure for the previous year.
This is not foreseeable, although the car trade is also expecting strong registration figures in December 2022. “On the one hand, the dealers will do everything possible to enable their customers to register with the even higher premiums this year, if possible,” said Thomas Peckruhn, Vice President of the Central Association of the German Motor Trade. “On the other hand, I assume that dealers will, if possible, allow all electric cars that have not yet been registered in their fleet themselves in order to be able to offer customers the higher premium in this way at the beginning of 2023.” According to Dudenhöffer, the fact that subsidies for electric cars will deteriorate at the turn of the year will significantly slow down their boom in Germany. The federal government’s target for 2030 will be missed “crackingly”, he said. It is 15 million fully electric cars.
In the case of plug-in hybrids, Dudenhöffer expects the market to collapse after the premium has been abolished. And in the case of pure electric vehicles, the price-sensitive segment of smaller vehicles in particular will suffer as a result of the reduced premium. In addition, there are high prices for electricity and rising costs for batteries. Even including plug-in hybrids, the industry expert assumes that there will only be around 7.2 million electric cars in 2030.
The auditing company Deloitte is also skeptical: “If electricity prices remain at this high level, we will only see 7.6 million electric cars in Germany in 2030,” said Harald Proff, head of the automotive sector. In order to still achieve the stated goal, “from 2024 further measures by the government and also by companies are necessary”.
