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It’s late, maybe too late. But now, two years after referendum, British government is showing population what Brexit really is about. It publishes so-called technical papers from Thursday 84. Each of m a warning of what complications scenario of a no deal would trigger. With facts, figures and data, government wants to explain objectively what British – and EU – need to do, negotiations should fail.
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What happens if Britain leaves single market and customs union without agreement with EU? If, refore, re is no transitional period to Brexit, if trade agreements with United Kingdom concluded by EU with third countries suddenly cease to apply? The answers are sobering.
For example, British pharmaceutical industry exports 45 million boxes of drugs to EU every month, but also imports 37 million boxes from re. Serious delays at border, which would be inevitable in a no deal, would endanger trouble-free supply of British hospitals and pharmacies. So British pharmaceutical industry and state must increase stocks of important medicines and blood preserves. Government papers are intended to help economy to prepare for emergency.
Truck traffic jams in Dover
So far, government has been restrained by statements about negative consequences of Brexit and a no deal, so as not to show before EU Commission how much Britain relies on a successful negotiation with EU. At same time, may feared accusation of hardliners, y shy away from Brexit. This has been different since Chequers ‘ negotiating proposal. It has shown country that it is serious about Britain’s withdrawal from EU and Customs Union.
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By end of September, British will now hear almost daily worrying no-deal scenarios. A relaxed journey with dog to France? Without agreement, this only goes after a quarantine – even on way home to island. And on return journey through canal tunnel, re will be a kilometre-long load of Wagenkolonnen in Dover, whose drivers are waiting for bureaucratic border clearance – wait on freeway thanks to no deal. And what if currently 15,000 British students have to cancel ir foreign year at universities in EU because UK is no longer allowed to participate in Erasmus programme? Or popular extreme example, if 2019 should not fly even more planes between Britain and EU, because this is regulated by EU within framework of common internal aviation market, in which Britain is no longer participating?
The documents are a signal from British government to Brussels that United Kingdom, six months before leaving EU, is preparing for emergency of No deal. It is, of course, also a threat for EU to move to London in negotiations, which, after meeting of two negotiators, Michel Barnier and Dominic Raab, has not been felt much.
But tide of papers is even more than a warning. It is tactical spearhead of Prime minister Theresa May against adversaries in ir own party who do not want to agree with EU, who reject any compromise, especially those of May and her ministerial officer Olly Robbins The negotiating plan of Chequers.
