The slowdown in consumption in recent months and the uncertainty about the economic measures of the Government has caused concern in the trade, which fears a possible downturn in consumption this Christmas. Businessmen and traders fear that the slowdown seen over the last few months is palpable also in this time, which is precisely when it is concentrated the greater part of the year’s sales.

All economic indicators lead you to think it will not be as buoyant as in recent years: the consumer confidence takes months to fall and sales in retail outlets carry a year spot and accused in September, its biggest drop since 2017.

“the behavior of The consumer is clearly conditioned by two factors: disposable income and their level of confidence in both the current situation and expectations for the coming months,” recalls the president of the association of companies of Big consumption (Aecoc), Javier Campo.

This employer represents almost all the brands, manufacturers and sellers of consumer products that are purchased in stores in Spain. Are thousands of business companies, including Amazon, Carrefour, Dia, Mercadona, Coca-Cola…

“The indicators that we manage to make the sector to meet this final stretch of the year -in which they are played a good part of the sales – with moderate optimism, and with the gaze fixed permanently on the announcement of possible measures, with a clear impact on consumer decisions”, according to Field.

The estimated growth for this year is well below forecast and the consumption goes through a difficult time as a result of the loss of purchasing power of families.

disposable income is growing 1.3%, while inflation stands at 2.3%. The population has lost a point of purchasing power. The prices have grown in the last year, 10 times more than the wages and of the food already do that 17 more times.

In this scenario, the fear is a restraint in spending. If the billing of the chains of supermarkets and hypermarkets has grown (it has done 3% so far this year) has not been because they have sold more, but on the contrary: sales have fallen for the first time in four years (up to June fell 0.9%, while in the same period of the previous year went up 1.8%) but kept the profits for rising prices (they have grown 3.9%).

in Addition, the index of consumer confidence, which is key to see how will be his behavior in the coming months, “it is not the bearer of good news,” warns Field. The past month of September fell twelve points, the largest decline of the past two and a half years.

With this backdrop in both the Black Friday as the bridge of the Constitution are presented as two levers for the consumption. “The first, by the dimension and relevance to the sector has acquired in recent years and, second, because there are some dates that occur displacement of sightseeing and shopping are integrated in such moments of leisure”, pointing from Anged, the management of distribution companies. Anged represent companies like El Corte Inglés, Carrefour, Cortefiel, Ikea or Toys ‘R Us, among others.

In recent years the Black Friday, the day of massive discounts imported from the united States and is celebrated the last week of November, it has served as an incentive to drive purchases in this period of holiday. He did this especially during the years of economic crisis. But some fear that this year’s downturn lost steam. The management of logistics One sees growth this year to be lower than the previous.

“it Is clear that this year there has been a significant slowdown in consumption, but we have confidence and face these last two months with the hope of overcoming the sales figures to the low experienced by the sector, and very especially the small and medium trade” note from the Spanish Confederation of Commerce (CEC), which represents mostly the small trade._

This year has not been good for the retail trade and above all to the textile. The adverse weather (in the fall it was hot, and the rains continued in the spring) has made the textile sector to accumulate falls until October, to 3.9%.

Given the need to sell the stock accumulated, a large part of the trade is to join the campaigns of Black Friday with discounts that iran’s 20% to 30%. This will boost the sales, as already happened in November of last year, but “will result in a drop in margins and in a month of December more loose”, they say.

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