There are many indications that the current flu epidemic in Germany is likely to be more severe than the past waves of influenza. An economist calculates that the expected loss of work alone could result in billions in damage. The treatment costs should be limited, which is not good news.
According to calculations by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the current severe wave of influenza could cause up to 40 billion euros in economic costs in this country. “The loss of work due to illness alone could result in a loss in gross value added of more than 30 billion euros for the German economy and, in the event of a very unfavorable course, even more than 40 billion euros,” the calculations say.
“The current wave of influenza broke out earlier and significantly more people are getting infected compared to the last severe cold waves. Accordingly, there are signs of significantly greater damage to German value creation than in the past,” says Michael Stolpe, IfW health economist.
How high the costs due to the loss of work actually are depends largely on the duration of the influenza wave. According to the report, in a pessimistic scenario, the institute expects the disease to last until the third week of April 2023 and until then to be 50 percent higher than in the last severe flu wave in winter 2017/18.
In this scenario, up to 650,000 cases of influenza would be feared. If this scenario occurs, gross national income could drop by more than 40 billion euros, according to IfW calculations. That would correspond to 1.2 percent of the added value. In 2017/2018, the decrease caused by lost working hours was a little more than 21 billion euros, about 0.7 percent.
“In order to reduce the economic costs, in particular the loss of work and the burden on the health system, it is advisable to flatten the curve of infection – for example by wearing masks, flu vaccinations and working from home,” says Stolpe. In his opinion, lifting the mask requirement in local public transport, as decided by Schleswig-Holstein at the end of the year, is too early. “Other federal states should not copy this mistake, but wait until the end of winter or the beginning of spring to abolish the mask requirement.”
The cost of medical treatment is not likely to rise at the same rate as the number of infections, as many hospitals have already reached their breaking point and lack the necessary medicines. “Instead of a sharp increase in direct treatment costs, a disproportionate increase in deaths is to be feared, because the longer the bottlenecks in the healthcare system last, the more the quality of care will deteriorate,” says Stolpe.
