It is obvious that the war in Ukraine and the end of Russian gas supplies could accelerate the energy transition. The International Energy Agency has calculated how much investment projects in green energy have grown.
The global energy crisis resulting from the Russian attack on Ukraine could give a strong boost to the energy transition if all new plans are implemented. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the energy bottlenecks, in addition to short-term protective measures for consumers against rising prices, mean that many countries are now trying to accelerate structural change, according to the IEA’s new annual report.
If implemented, the plans would mean a 50 percent increase in global clean energy investment by 2030. The energy markets and energy policy are not only changing in the short term, but for the coming decades, explained IEA Director Fatih Birol. “The responses of governments around the world promise a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and secure energy system.”
According to the IEA analysis, a peak or a plateau for the world demand for fossil fuels is in sight for the first time. Under the current political framework, coal use is expected to decline over the next few years, with natural gas demand plateauing by the end of the decade. Increasing sales of electric vehicles will therefore lead to oil demand flattening out in the mid-2030s and then declining slightly until the middle of the century.
According to the analysis, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix will fall from 80 percent to 60 percent by 2050. Global CO2 emissions will also decrease accordingly. Despite all this, however, the IEA assumes global warming of 2.5 degrees by the year 2100 – far away from the 1.5 degree target, which is intended to help prevent the serious effects of climate change.
