China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that is to be reunited with the mainland – if necessary using military force. The failed Russian blitz invasion of Ukraine has the CIA worried that China doesn’t want to make the same mistake.
Despite Russian setbacks in the war of aggression against Ukraine, the US foreign intelligence service CIA assumes that China could take violent action against Taiwan in the future. At the Aspen Security Forum, CIA chief William Burns said the Chinese leadership was “uneasy” about Russia’s “strategic failure” in Ukraine.
But this has less bearing on the question “whether” the Chinese leadership might choose to “use force to control Taiwan” in a few years, and more on the question “how and when they would do it,” he said Burns on. China is likely to learn that “rapid, decisive victories” can only be achieved by pulling together “overwhelming forces”. In addition, China has probably learned that it has to protect its economy against possible sanctions.
China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that is to be reunited with the mainland – if necessary using military force. The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has recently fueled fears that Beijing could use a similar approach when dealing with Taiwan.
Burns expressed caution at the Aspen Security Forum about speculation that China could take action against Taiwan later this year. “It seems to us that the risks are increasing as this decade progresses,” said the CIA chief.
Most recently, a visit by the Taiwanese parliamentary speaker Su Jia-chyuan to the Czech Republic drew sharp criticism from the Chinese side. The People’s Republic’s embassy in Prague warned that inviting the – to put it literally – “dogged separatist” would undermine the foundations of Czech-Chinese relations. The EU member state must stop sending “wrong signals”.
