Russia aims its drones and missiles at critical infrastructure in Ukraine, and a third of all power plants have been destroyed. Whether the supply of electricity and heat will remain stable in the coming winter could become a matter of life or death for tens of thousands of civilians.
The order was greeted with amusement on Ukrainian social media channels: civilians should not shoot the Iranian kamikaze drones, which have been falling over cities across the country for days, out of the sky on their own. The fact that people are not intimidated by this new form of escalation – the targeted attack on the critical energy infrastructure – should give hope. But it also shows how vulnerable the country still is. On Tuesday alone, the Ukrainian general staff registered 87 Russian missile and air strikes in ten regions and on major cities such as Kharkiv, Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kyiv. 43 Kamikaze drones were also used, 38 of which were shot down.
Where the air defenses fail, the projectiles have a devastating effect. More than 70 people have been killed and more than 240 injured since the attacks began more than a week ago. 380 buildings, including around 240 residential buildings, were damaged. Several electric and thermal power plants in the Kyiv, Zaporizhia and western Ukraine regions have had to shut down. According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, every third power plant has now been destroyed. “This means that there are over 1,000 towns and villages in Ukraine that are dealing with blackouts. That is of course a problem,” explains Miranda Schreurs, professor of environmental and climate policy, in an interview with ntv.de. Health care is also affected. Generators are already running in many hospitals and nursing homes “because so much infrastructure has failed.”
In Kyiv, the water supply also collapsed after one of the most recent attacks. Mayor Vitali Klitschko called on all residents to save electricity and stock up on drinking water. President Zelenskyj also asked his fellow citizens to be frugal so that the energy supply would remain stable for everyone. Ukraine, which exported electricity abroad on a large scale before the war, fears the collapse of its critical infrastructure – and that shortly before the onset of winter, which can get bitterly cold in many regions, including Kyiv, with temperatures as low as minus 15 degrees Celsius.
For András Rácz, Senior Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, this is a targeted strategy in war. “Russia has long been preparing large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure. The attack on the Kerch Bridge probably only provided a convenient pretext for carrying out this plan.” Russia had described the recent wave of violence as retaliation for the partial destruction of the prestige building in Crimea. In fact, as a result of the massive military losses at the front, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is now using a new (well-known) strategy: terror against the civilian population in order to demoralize the enemy.
This could have fatal consequences for millions of people in Ukraine. The World Health Organization (WHO) is already warning of a humanitarian catastrophe. More than 800,000 houses have been destroyed, and many Ukrainians are living in emergency shelters or in damaged buildings – without access to electricity or fuel to run generators, for example. “If people don’t have a way to heat their homes in winter, it could mean the difference between life and death,” the WHO said in a statement.
Older people in particular, who were no longer able or willing to flee from the war, could die of seasonal illnesses, hypothermia, strokes or heart attacks without adequate care in the cold months. In addition, there is a risk of a new refugee movement within the country. Two to three million people could become internally displaced “due to the winter challenges and the recent escalation of fighting,” the organization said.
In order to cause maximum suffering, Putin doesn’t even have to put in a lot of effort. It suits him that many cities and municipalities in Ukraine use a centralized district heating system to heat houses and provide hot water. Thermal power plants often supply an entire region. If a power plant fails for a long time, the situation can quickly become life-threatening, especially in winter. In order to achieve this, a single kamikaze drone is sufficient when in doubt. “Not every drone makes it to the finish line,” says security expert Markus Kaim in an ntv interview. “But it has proven to be a comparatively effective weapon.”
For Putin, drones also have the advantage that they compensate for Russian ammunition shortages. András Rácz believes that the fact that Russia is now also shelling Ukraine with “notoriously inaccurate” S-300 missiles proves “that precision-guided missiles are running out.” Still, he thinks it’s a mistake to hope that stocks will run out at some point. “The stocks are not yet completely used up,” says Rácz. Moscow is able and willing to use all S-300 missiles against Ukraine. In addition, the regime in Tehran apparently already promised to supply more drones and surface-to-surface missiles to Russia on October 6.
In view of this, Kyiv is more dependent than ever on the support of the international community. The first promises of help have already been made. Japan’s ambassador to Ukraine, Matsuda Kuninori, announced that Japan will support the reconstruction of the destroyed power plants. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance would deliver anti-drone systems to Ukraine “in the coming days”. The EU is also planning sanctions against individuals in Iran. According to the US State Department, the United States wants to at least make it more difficult to sell further drones by taking “practical, aggressive” steps.
However, it is questionable whether all this is enough to protect cities and communities from precarious living conditions in winter. “Ukrainian air defense has significant weaknesses,” says Kaim. “She’s been able to bring down a lot of these drones, but full coverage hasn’t been possible.” Attempts by police officers, soldiers and civilians to shoot the drones out of the sky with handguns show the courage but also the complete desperation of the Ukrainians in the face of the continuing threat. After all, the projectiles come down again at some point and can cause damage.