CDU politician Kiesewetter pledges the Germans to a long war in Ukraine. The Austrian Colonel Reisner, who sees many more potential soldiers in Russia, sees things similarly. However, the approaching winter would freeze the fighting for a while.
According to the CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter, the people in Germany must be informed that the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine could last for a long time. “Our population also has to be prepared for the fact that this war can possibly go on for another two years and that it will spread,” Kiesewetter told TV station Welt. The critical infrastructure is under pressure. “It will not only take place on Ukrainian soil, it is also a war against us,” said Kiesewetter.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aim is to spread fear and terror. “And we don’t even see many of the pictures because they are so terrible. And that’s something that our population must always be aware of: the war is worse than some of the pictures suggest,” says Kiesewetter.
The Austrian Guards Commander Colonel Markus Reisner sees it similarly in an interview with the Austrian news agency APA. In his eyes, the attacks on the Kerch Bridge, which is so important for the supply of Russian troops, and the Russian reaction to them lead to an escalation of the conflict, which would be so clearly prolonged. This is also supported by the fact that the number of fighters called up in Russia is significantly higher than the 300,000 men mentioned. In remote regions of the country, to his knowledge, practically all men of military age are drafted. First of all, however, it would be looked at who would be suitable, says Reisner. However, Russia potentially has over 30 million reservists.
After deducting the number of people who have fled abroad, Ukraine would only have a total of 35 million people. In addition, the fourth wave of mobilization is already underway, Reisner told APA. Any man over the age of 45 could now be drafted. Despite all Western arms deliveries, Ukraine is at risk of running out of able-bodied fighters at some point. According to Reisner, Russia is speculating on this.
The weather will ensure that significantly fewer combat operations on the ground are to be expected in the coming months, and certainly not with major war decisions. In the autumn comes the mud period first, followed by the frost. According to Reisner, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles could continue to fly, but beyond that the fighting will decrease significantly. The positions would also be more strongly fortified on both sides during this phase, which in turn made it much more difficult to capture them in the spring.
With winter approaching, Russia now appears to be targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. The people should lack water, warmth and food in the coming months. The hope in Russia is that the civilian population will increase the pressure on the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj in view of the emergency, that there will be forced negotiations with Russia, or even that the regime in Kyiv will be overthrown.
It looks similar in Russia. There, too, the population or influential groups would have to overthrow Putin and his supporters in order to take a step towards the end of the war. As long as the majority of the population stands behind the Kremlin, “the Russians will continue,” Reisner told APA. Despite all the protests as a result of the mobilization, experts are currently not assuming that the Russian people could overthrow their president in the near future.
