Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered partial mobilization in his country. At the same time he is threatening the West with the use of nuclear weapons. How seriously do you have to take Putin’s threats? This is a topic on the ARD talk show “Hart aber fair”.
After the offensive by the Ukrainian army in the east of the country, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered partial mobilization. He triggered demonstrations among the population, many men seem to be deserting. How serious is the situation in Russia and what is the point of partial mobilization given that soldiers are sent to the front after supposedly only two weeks of training? The guests on the ARD program “Hart aber fair” discussed this on Monday evening.
The partial mobilization of the army is not helping at the moment, says military expert Claudia Major. The soldiers are badly trained because there is a lack of the necessary instructors. At the same time, there is not enough equipment for the new troops. “The soldiers are not super motivated,” says Major. And the army’s well-known problems, not the least of which were poor leadership and inadequate logistics, would not go away overnight. Putin has two main goals: he wants to prolong the war and he wants to show the European allies that Russia has the staying power. For the expert, the partial mobilization in Russia means preparation for a possible spring offensive in 2023.
“We now have to draw the right conclusions from this,” demands Claudia Major. For them, that means arming Ukraine as soon as possible.
Claudia Major explains: “Guns allow you to shell out a position from a certain range. But if you want to take a position, you need a mix of protection, mobility and fire.” Main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers could achieve this, possibly with air support. The weapons that the West is now providing have enabled Ukraine to hold positions. But there is a lack of tanks that bring soldiers to the front. “Some of them drove to the front in VW vans,” said Major. If the West wants Ukraine to be able to liberate the areas occupied by Russia, it would have to be equipped differently, says Major.
Chancellor Scholz has repeatedly said that you cannot deliver weapons on your own. Major sees it differently. “The delivery of the Gepard defense tank was a solo effort. All of our partners supported it.” In principle, however, she can also understand if you refuse to go it alone because you are stronger together with other partners. Major demands that Germany must use its leading role in Europe to forge coalitions and lead the way in arms deliveries. “To say our partners don’t do it, so we don’t do it either, is not necessarily my definition of leadership,” summarizes Claudia Major.
The diplomat and longtime head of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, sees it the same way. “It’s important to us that the war in Ukraine doesn’t last for years, as Putin thinks. We have to create the conditions for this war to end as early as possible,” says Ischinger. If our military performance can help Ukraine to liberate as much Russian-held territory as possible, there is no doubt that we are approaching the point at which Ukraine can ultimately be willing to negotiate.
Could this be the reason for Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons? Claudia Major gives two other reasons: Putin wants to prevent the West from intervening, and that worked. Above all, he wants to stir up fear. “The threat with the gun is already the weapon,” says Major. The military expert considers it rather unlikely that Putin will actually use nuclear weapons. “If Putin did that, the West would fundamentally reconsider its role in the war.” The American President Biden also said that clearly. But China and India would also turn their backs on Russia if nuclear weapons were used. The West must take Putin’s threat seriously, but the NATO countries must also make it clear that they will not allow themselves to be blackmailed by Putin.
SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert is not entirely of this opinion. He also does not believe that Putin will use nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, he says: “We have to be careful now.” Especially when it comes to arms deliveries, the government must react prudently. Kühnert’s reaction to the question of which weapon systems Ukraine currently needs triggers a lack of understanding. It’s not his job to comment on this, and he doesn’t know much about it either.
