After winning the federal elections last year, the SPD was on top. But the Union is now the strongest political force in Germany again. It would look different if the Chancellor were elected directly: Here Scholz keeps the competition at a distance.

Even shortly before Christmas, the Union remains the strongest party in Germany. With 28 percent, it loses one point compared to the previous week. But according to the RTL/ntv trend barometer, the gap to the SPD and the Greens remains quite large: both parties reach 19 percent, like a week ago.

Meanwhile, the FDP remains at 7 percent, the left at 5. The AfD increases one point to 13 percent. As always since August, the other parties have a total of 9 percent. At 24 percent, the proportion of non-voters and undecided is slightly higher than the proportion of non-voters in the last federal election (23.4 percent).

Within a year, the political mood has changed. Last December, shortly after the government was formed, the SPD was ahead with 26 percent, followed by the CDU and CSU (23 percent) and the Greens (16). While the latter were then able to increase, peaking at 25 percent in August and then falling again, the Social Democrats have been losing support since the spring. Since May they have always been around 20 percent. Compared to December 2021, the FDP also lost, at that time it was 11 percent. The AfD, which came to 10 percent last December, was able to increase. Meanwhile, the left did not get out of its low over the course of the year.

The turnaround in the course of the year is likely to be due to the crisis issues that are still burning on the citizens’ nails. Towards the end of the year, the war in the Ukraine (named by 52 percent) and the energy crisis (44 percent) remain – albeit with a weaker trend – the issues that concern Germans the most. However, other events are now also being noticed: the suspicion of corruption in the European Parliament (14), the dangers of right-wing extremism (10), the climate crisis (10) and health care problems (10). The World Cup in Qatar employed 13 percent of the people.

Unlike his party, however, Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains on top. Although he lost a point to 23 percent in the previous week’s comparison, he is still ahead of CDU leader Friedrich Merz (19) and the Green Robert Habeck (20), who can gain one point. Should Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock take the place of Habeck, she is currently at 21 percent – that’s a loss of one point. In this constellation, Merz still has 22 percent, Scholz is still ahead with 24 percent.

The political competence that people attribute to the parties remains low. 11 percent of all eligible voters each trust the SPD, the Union parties and the Greens to deal with the problems in Germany. 3 percent trust the FDP, 5 percent one of the other parties. Significantly more than half – 59 percent – currently do not believe that any party is capable of dealing with the problems in Germany. In December 2021, this value was 58 percent.

Meanwhile, 17 percent of all Germans expect that the economic situation in Germany will improve in the coming years. 63 percent expect the economic situation to deteriorate, 18 percent no change. Last December, 20 percent had expected an improvement, 51 percent a deterioration and 25 percent expected the economic situation to remain unchanged.

The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from December 13 to 19, 2022. Database: 2503 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: /- 2.5 percentage points.

More information about Forsa here

Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany