Two years after the disputed presidential election in Belarus, Svetlana Tichanovskaya is not giving up the battle against Alexander Lukashenko as “Europe’s last dictator”. The fact that the 67-year-old remains in power after more than a quarter of a century is mainly thanks to Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin in neighboring Russia.
From Tichanovskaya’s point of view, he therefore repeatedly serves as a supporter in Putin’s war against Ukraine. “Lukashenko is a collaborator,” says Tichanovskaya of the German Press Agency from her exile in the EU country of Lithuania.
The 39-year-old, who was wanted by Lukashenko as an “extremist”, is seen by many people as the winner of the August 9, 2020 election. Today she also regards the war in Ukraine as fateful for her country.
“He dragged Belarus into this war and now he’s going to do whatever is asked of him to keep Russia in power,” says Tichanovskaya. She became the hero of the revolution against Lukashenko in the summer two years ago. During the mass protests in Minsk, hundreds of thousands rebelled against the head of state until he used brute force – and Putin’s blessing – to bring the movement to a standstill.
No end to repression
Hundreds of people are in political captivity in Belarus. Unforgotten are the dead, the thousands injured. Tens of thousands have fled. Non-governmental and human rights organizations and even trade unions are banned. “The repression continues,” says Tichanovskaya.
Because of the war in neighboring Ukraine, international attention for Lukashenko is now lower. “But we have set up structures so that we can strike at the regime’s weakness at the decisive moment.” Tikhanovskaya sees Lukashenko’s opponents better prepared today to lead the protests in Belarus on a new occasion. “In 2020 there was no structure.”
But every resistance is also one against Russia. “Lukashenko is under the total control of the Kremlin,” says Tichanovskaya. Today it is obvious that the Kremlin probably had war plans for Ukraine even then and therefore left Lukashenko in power. “Now it’s clear what Lukashenko was important for.” He leaves Belarusian territory so that Russian forces can attack Ukraine from there. Only last Sunday did the Ukrainian general staff report that Russia was continuing to move soldiers and military equipment to Belarusian territory.
Further fear of incorporation
Political scientist Valery Karbelevich, who has also fled abroad, notes that the Russian army is using the bases in Belarus for attacks on Ukraine without a contractual basis. The Russians behaved as if it were their country, says Karbelevich. Just recently, for example, Russian representatives in the Belarusian city of Brest received the Moscow-based separatist leader Denis Puschilin from Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. There he said unchallenged that it was time to take back “Russian” cities. Fears that Belarus could lose its independence and eventually be incorporated by Russia have long existed.
But Karbelevich also observes that Lukashenko is apparently bothered by being considered “Putin’s puppet.” After the many visits to Putin, whom he often asks for money, the ruler emphasized that Belarus and Russia are “two sovereign states”. Karbelevich sees it as a sign of Lukashenko’s dwindling power when he has to remind people who is in charge of the house. “If this continues, the elite will start to think that the tsar is not real.” The system could collapse in on itself.
How he behaves during the war is also considered crucial for Lukashenko’s political survival. Karbelevich and Tikhanovskaya believe that full participation may hasten its end. “Both opponents and supporters of Lukashenko are against the war. And that is the cardinal difference between Belarus and Russia, where the war is supported by the absolute majority of the population,” says Karbelevich. Only eight percent of the people in Belarus could imagine their country taking part in the war.
Strong resistance expected
There is no anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Belarus, stresses Tichanovskaya. Despite the high pressure of expectations in the Kremlin, Lukashenko has still not managed to get the country on course for war. She anticipates strong opposition to her country’s possible full participation in Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. At the beginning of the war there were also acts of sabotage against supply routes. “Rail partisans slowed down military transport; and information was given to the Ukrainian armed forces on the bases from which Russian missiles were being fired.”
Rather, the opposition in exile expects Lukashenko to increase the pressure on those who think differently in order to demonstrate his power. Tichanovskaya is therefore appealing to the West to keep up the pressure on “the Lukashenko regime.” “The sanctions are working.” The goal today is “to drain Lukashenko’s regime.”
“We are waiting for a historic window. There are action plans to implement reforms immediately – also with the help of representatives of the security apparatus and the civil service, who have switched to our side.” The opposition is also relying on help from the European Union. Despite the high economic dependence on Russia, Tichanovskaya expects Belarus to be able to maintain its independence as a country. “But there is a dynamic. And no one can say what will happen.”