as clearly as never before climate scientists from seven Nations have identified the human-accelerated global warming as the cause for an extreme weather event: The Siberian heat wave early this summer would not have been without climate change “most likely” possible. Even if the years of measurable warming in the Arctic would be part of a natural process, could take place in may and June, continuing the tropical peak temperatures probably only once every 130 years. The climate change had increased the probability of this unusual warming period between January and June, six a hundred times, writes the “World Weather Attribution”Initiative (WWA) in their a few days ago, submitted to analysis.
Joachim Müller-Jung
editor in the features section, responsible for the area of “nature and science”.
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the climax of the prolonged heat wave continued, the world meteorological authority WMO not yet confirmed record of 38 degrees Celsius at the meteorological station at Verkhoyansk, beyond the Arctic polar circle was. An above average number of forest fires were the consequence. Overall, in the study of input temperature values were in the large Siberian stripe between 60 and 75 degrees North and 60 degrees to 180 degrees East, five degrees above the long-term average for the first six months. The team of researchers, at the in addition to the at the University of Oxford to make climate analyst, Friederike Otto and Russian scientists and experts from the German weather service were involved in the analysis of the temperature history of the available measurement stations using statistical methods, and at the same time systematically in the climate model-derived values matched.
It was found that without the addition of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide-driven strong atmosphere heating values as in the first half of the year are hardly to simulate.
With heating from 2.5 to seven degrees is expected
Extremhitzen as of 2020 would have been around the year 1900, at least two degrees Celsius colder. Mathematically, it would have been 80,000 years in such an extreme heat, without the increase in human-caused greenhouse gases possible. As regards the future, the models on a further above – average warming in Siberia, and thus a growing danger of melting, so far, all the year round frozen permafrost soils within the Arctic which is likely to eventually increase the greenhouse effect by large-scale emissions of methane significantly. Still, the researchers are uncertain how quickly that will happen. Up to the year 2050, the WWA scientists should be, with a heating of the region by 2.5 to seven degrees Celsius expected.
With the investigation confirmed once more that the Arctic and the high North heat is currently about two to three times as strong as the Rest of the world. By Friederike Otto co-founded WWA consortium has so far made 350 analyses of extreme weather events in recent times and about the Bush fire in Australia as well as last year’s heat wave in France, as the probable results of climate change identified.