First he wrote it off, but now the best-known Apple analyst is expecting the fourth edition of the iPhone SE. It is interesting that the success of the device does not necessarily depend on the sales figures, but on the function of a specific component.
Even the most accurate Apple analyst in the world sometimes flounders. In December, Ming-Chi-Kuo still thought it likely that the company would postpone or completely cancel the fourth edition of the iPhone SE. The reasons he gave were disappointing sales figures and the risk that a design with Face ID instead of a home button with a fingerprint sensor could lead to higher costs and thus higher prices.
In January, Kuo wrote that Qualcomm was the biggest winner of the iPhone SE 4 exit as the company remains the exclusive supplier of the wireless chips. But now the analyst is taking a step backwards and expecting a new edition of the SE. At the same time, he lowers the forecast for Qualcomm sales.
The analyst tweeted that his latest survey showed that Apple had recently resumed work on the iPhone SE 4. It is ultimately a customized iPhone 14 with a 6.1-inch display. This means that the SE 2024 will have an OLED screen for the first time, which is the most important change. The current design corresponds to that of the iPhone 8 with a small 4.7-inch LCD and a physical home button.
Kuo no longer writes that the modern design entails a cost problem. The fact that the iPhone SE 4 is coming after all could embarrass Qualcomm, according to the analyst. The background is that Apple has been planning to use its own 5G modems in its devices for some time. So far, however, development has not been satisfactory, which is why the company is still dependent on Qualcomm’s chips.
A cancellation would cement Qualcomm’s position, according to Kuo’s analysis in January. Because Apple planned to test its own 5G modem in the iPhone SE 4 for the first time in order to then equip all of its own devices with it. But now he assumes that the new SE will actually be equipped with Apple’s 5G chip, which is said to be manufactured using the 4-nanometer process.
Whether the chip will also be used in the iPhone 16 series depends on whether Apple can overcome the technical obstacles associated with satellite communication and millimeter waves, writes Kuo. Millimeter waves have frequencies of more than 24 gigahertz (GHz) and enable particularly high data rates of up to 20 gigabits per second Gbit/s. According to the analyst, the SE-4 modem should only support frequencies below 6 GHz.
Kuo predicts that having its own 5G chip in the new iPhone SE will certainly mean that Apple orders from Qualcomm will drop significantly in the foreseeable future. Initially, this will probably be the case with the iPad and the Apple Watch, since the technical requirements for these devices are lower.
