The year 2023 is the hottest on record in half of the scenarios, and 2024 should be even worse, judged American government scientists in a conference whose recording was published Monday August 14.
So far, 2023 is the third hottest year on record, said Sarah Kapnick, chief scientist at the US Weather and Oceanographic Agency (NOAA). And the probability of it becoming the hottest is “nearly 50%,” she added.
In addition to global warming, the cyclic phenomenon El Niño, synonymous with additional global warming, contributes to this trend by increasing the temperature of the surface of the oceans. However, it should last beyond next winter, experts predict. “The strongest impact of El Niño will occur in 2024,” said Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist at the United States Space Agency (NASA). So we expect not only 2023 to be excessively hot, and possibly a record year, but also 2024 to be even hotter. »
Cool years compared to mid-century
Both spoke during a press conference analyzing global temperatures recorded last month, which NOAA confirmed was a record month.
“It’s important to remember that these years are going to be cool compared to mid-century, if we continue to warm our planet by emitting greenhouse gases,” Kapnick said.
The temperature of the surface of the oceans in particular panics scientists: for the fourth month in a row, it has reached a record, according to NOAA. “More than 40% of the oceans are currently experiencing a marine heat wave,” warned Sarah Kapnick. However, this has potentially disastrous consequences on the species that live there, especially corals.
“Mother Nature is sending us a message, and that message is: we better act now, before it’s too late to save our climate, and in other words, save our planet,” said the head of NASA, Bill Nelson, recalling, “We’re all in this together. »
