The world population is approaching the eight billion mark – this should be reached by the end of the year. But growth is slowing down and is even expected to stop altogether by 2080. On the one hand, this brings advantages, for example in the fight against hunger and poverty, but also problems – such as aging.
Eight billion people – according to the United Nations, this striking mark in the world population should be reached around November 15 of this year. Nevertheless, the number of people on our planet is growing more and more slowly, according to the forecasts, it should not increase at all from the year 2080 – at then 10.4 billion people, as the United Nations wrote in a report on World Population Day on July 11th.
For John Wilmoth, Director of the UN Population Division, there are many opportunities, especially for developing countries, in global development – despite all regional differences. In addition to fighting poverty or hunger, this applies above all to the issue of education: fewer offspring increase the attention per child, said Wilmoth.
The downside of lower birth rates, however, is that the population as a whole is getting older and a larger proportion are reaching an age when they are dependent on help. In particular because life expectancy will also increase: according to UN estimates from 72.8 in 2019 to 77.2 in 2050. Particular attention should be paid to the most populous regions of the world in terms of global development:
China: The (still) most populous country in the world is facing enormous challenges. In the past year alone, more than ten million babies were born in the People’s Republic. The number sounds huge, but it is too low to keep the population of 1.4 billion people stable in the long term. China is aging rapidly as the effects of the decades-old one-child policy become more and more noticeable. The lifting of the controversial restriction only briefly led to a slight increase in births in 2016. But the number has continued to fall every year since then.
Experts justify the small number of new births by saying that couples who usually grew up as only children themselves would consider it normal to have only one child. High costs for housing, education and health as well as the dwindling willingness to marry are also given as reasons for the low birth rate. According to forecasts, the population of billions will start to shrink in a few years – probably even earlier than has long been assumed.
India: The country in South Asia is officially the second most populous country in the world, more than 1.3 billion people live there – around a sixth of humanity. And the relatively young Indian population is likely to continue to grow and, according to the new UN report, overtake China in 2023. But the birth rate is also declining in India: According to official figures, Indian women have only had two children in their lives on average for some time now – around ten percent less than comparable figures five years earlier and less than the reproduction rate of 2 required for a stable population ,1. According to this, around two-thirds of couples now use contraception, while five years ago only every second couple did so.
Since the population is still very young, experts say it will continue to grow despite the lower birth rate. As late as the 1960s, a woman in India gave birth to around six children on average, and many feared an explosive population growth and the resulting problems in food production, among other things.
The African continent: In the foreseeable future, no continent will grow as much as Africa, which is largely underdeveloped. According to the German Foundation for World Population, around 1.4 billion people currently live on the continent. And the number is increasing: by 2050, the population will increase to around 2.5 billion. By the end of the century, about three times as many people will live in Africa as today, almost 4.3 billion – about 40 percent of the world’s population. The biggest drivers are above all ten countries from which more than half of all newborns will come in 2050: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Algeria and Sudan.
However, the global trend towards slower growth will also have an impact on Africa, with the population growth rate estimated at 0.6 percent for 2100. The outlook: In the meantime, more and more high-income countries – like Japan today – will slip into a negative population trend. For a stable growth rate, countries like Germany would have to rely on migration. The UN advises in the report: “All countries, whether experiencing a net inflow or outflow of migrants, should take steps to facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration.”
The United Nations is looking ahead to the year 2100 – according to current forecasts, a special turning point in world history: the total population is then expected to shrink.
According to Wilmoth, however, the information about a development in 80 years should be treated with caution. “For the next 30 or 40 years, we know pretty much what’s going to happen to the populations of each country and globally. But beyond that, you start looking two or three generations into the future. There’s a lot more uncertainty in that time frame .”
(This article was first published on Monday, July 11, 2022.)
