In the loudspeakers of the mosques resonate the songs of Eid, the celebration of the end of Ramadan. But the voice of the muezzins is constantly disturbed by the bombardments which continue, on this Friday, April 21, the seventh day of the Sudanese conflict between the head of the national troops, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, and the boss of the powerful militia Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo more commonly known as “Hemeti”.
Some doubt that the two architects of the October 25, 2021 coup, which interrupted the democratic transition that began two years earlier, themselves triggered hostilities. “They had an interest in perpetuating the status quo in which Burhane and Hemeti could take turns in the role of conciliator”, explains a security source within the diplomatic community. The Islamists, Burhane’s staunchest allies, may have accelerated the slide, due to their radical hostility to the return of a transition to civilian rule. This beginning of civil war which left at least 413 dead and 3,551 injured throughout the territory seemed inevitable and threatens to get bogged down.
“I don’t know why the United States and the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan have supported negotiations with these generals so far. Since 2019, it is clear that the latter are not serious about the democratic transition ”, underlines the professor of political science Bashir Elshariff. Since the revolution that led to the ousting of dictator Omar al-Bashir, soldiers and paramilitaries have constantly turned their backs. First by dismantling with incredible violence the revolutionary sit-in on June 3, 2019 that they claimed to be protecting. Then the duo obstructed the democratic transition that was supposed to lead to elections. before seizing power.
Relations between the enemy brothers soured over the integration of the RSF into the national troops. It was one of the five sensitive files that the civilian signatories of the framework agreement of December 5, 2022, supposed to turn the page of the putsch under the auspices of the international community, wanted to decide before initialling the final pact. This deadline, announced for April 1, had been postponed as the enmity between the two generals grew.
“Since the revolution of December 2018, there has always been a continuous tension, insists Mahi Rabih, one of the politicians of the pro-democracy coalition of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC). We played the role of mediators in 2021. We managed to defuse the escalation, but then the generals carried out a coup against us,” recalls this former director of personnel in the Ministry of Cabinet Affairs during the transitional period.
The disagreements mainly relate to the period of unification of the troops. Burhane was counting on two years maximum, while Hemeti asked for ten years or more. Technically, the maneuver is very delicate. RSF officers benefit from the economic and financial empire built by Hemeti, in particular thanks to his family business Al-Junaid, which is very active in gold mining. The latter earn on average five times more than their colleagues engaged in the national ranks. Above all, their leader refuses to lose his independence and therefore demanded to place himself directly under the authority of the future Prime Minister and not the boss of the army.
“The Sudanese Armed Forces refused to reform their army to oust the Islamists, which Hemeti demanded. For their part, the RSF have no intention of joining the army. However, the international community took them in the wrong direction and put pressure on them out of ignorance of the mentality of the Sudanese soldiers, “says a source close to the RSF. The politicians involved in the political process themselves doubted the future of their preliminary deal. “We knew that something was brewing between the Islamist members of the army,” admits Mahi Rabih of the FFC.
Pointed out by the pro-democracies, the supporters of the old regime seem caught in their own trap. It was indeed the dictator Omar al-Bashir who created the RSF in 2013, by bringing together militiamen from an Arab people of Darfur, nicknamed the “Janjawids”. The strong man of Sudan then gives them carte blanche to overcome the rebels of Darfur, but also of the Nuba Mountains and the Blue Nile. Their cruel modes of action, including rape and village burning, remain relevant.
Back in the capital, the situation remains volatile around strategic points, including the presidential palace, the army headquarters and the airport. The difficulties of the national troops hardly surprise Al Baqir Al Afif, the founder of the Kace think tank on conflicts and human rights. “The army was diverted from its functions by Islamists who used the RSF to fight,” insists the researcher. The generals provided them with intelligence and technical support, but ground combat was systematically carried out by the RSF. Army officers are just corrupt politicians. »
Main weakness of the militiamen: they do not have an air force. The wick was precisely broken near an air base, in Merowe, in the north of the country. Sudanese and Egyptian warplanes were stationed there. Three days before the conflict, Hemeti had sent a hundred vehicles to the spot, attracting the wrath of the army spokesman. According to information from The Washington Post, Egypt is already providing air support to its army allies. President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi indeed fears the spread of democratic ideas beyond the Sudanese borders in the event of a return to a civil transition. Cairo also shares with Riyadh a monopoly on livestock exports, bought at knockdown prices in Khartoum, slaughtered on Egyptian and Saudi soil and resold to the rest of the world.
Also according to the American daily, Hemeti would have received arms deliveries from his Libyan friends. The CCN channel claims that Wagner’s mercenaries also supplied him with missiles in the early hours of the conflict. But it is the United Arab Emirates that remain the most faithful supporters of this former cameleer from Darfur. “Hemeti is very useful to them, because its economic and political influence facilitates their access to all the resources they need,” summarizes Raga Malawi, a researcher in political economy. Dubai benefits greatly from the agricultural lands and gold-bearing subsoils of Sudan. The Emiratis have also sent thousands of RSF to fight in Yemen. They are finally eyeing the east of the country of the two Niles and its 5,000 kilometers of coastline on the Red Sea.
In December, AD Ports Group signed a $6 billion contract with Sudanese billionaire Osama Daoud, head of conglomerate DAL Group. The objective is to establish a new port within ten years, 200 kilometers north of the current economic heart of the country, Port Sudan. This strategic position has long interested the Russians, who obtained guarantees in February to transfer four nuclear-powered submarines and finally realize their dream of a naval base, which the Americans are strongly opposed to.
“Are we heading for a proxy war between the United States and Russia? Maybe, possibly. We, the Sudanese people, find ourselves stuck in the middle and always pay the price for fighting interests, “denounced activist Dallia Abdelmoniem before taking refuge in an area of ????the capital less exposed to bombardments. At the end of this first week of an unprecedented militarized conflict in Khartoum, and whose magnitude in the other affected regions such as North Darfur also seems unprecedented, the army chief finally addressed the nation. He promises victory. Deprived of family gatherings for Eid, and well aware of the international implications, the Sudanese doubt the imminent realization of this promise. The security source confirms: “Both sides are strong, neither can win quickly or easily. »
