“For the first-time in the Fifth Republic, a newly elected President fails to attain a majority [in][the] following legislative election[s]”, stated Jean-Luc Melenchon in his televised address Sunday, June 12, during the second round of voting. One thing that is still to be confirmed is the fact that it is unknown who, from the presidential majority (or the alliance of left- and environmentalists [Nupes]) will finish in the first place, pending the final results.
Emmanuel Macron is extremely concerned by the outcome of the first round in the 2022 legislative election. One look at the rearview mirror will show how much.
According to provisional estimates, the presidential candidates have 25.6% of votes. Only one in four voters support the presidential majority. In the Fifth Republic’s history, a president has never had such a weak electoral base during the legislative elections following the presidential election. The LREM-MoDem–Horizons coalition (the Party of Edouard Philippe), can still hope for an absolute majority at the National Assembly at round two. However, it pales in comparison.
After Francois Mitterrand’s election to the Elysee Palace in 1981, the president majority (PCF) received nearly 55% votes at the end of the first round legislative elections. After the 1988 re-election, the socialist’s presidential majority (PS, various left) still received 37.6% of votes.
After 1995’s first election of Jacques Chirac, there were no legislative elections. However, in 2002, 44% of votes were won by the UMP-UDF coalition (with various right). Even better is the day following Nicolas Sarkozy’s 2007 election: 45.6% for UMP and its various right wing allies. The majority of Francois Hollande supporters accounted for 39.9% of 2012’s vote – this still includes the ecologists from EELV.
2017 saw the end of the political landscape, which allowed Emmanuel Macron to win an absolute majority at the National Assembly. Despite a lower level, the 32.3% of LREM-MoDem was sufficient to displace right, left, and extreme right.
Five years later, this is not the case. The Together! has fallen to 25.6% (LREM/MoDem, Horizons) has fallen to 25.6%, which is just below its opponents from Nupes (the alliance of left- and environmentalists).
