Where is the protest that has rocked Iran for more than three months headed? Why does the regime hardly hold out the prospect of reforms to the population, instead reacting with ever more massive violence? Experts see the answer in the history of the origins of the Islamic Republic.
“No way forward, no way back”, says a Persian proverb. After more than two months of state of emergency, it aptly describes the hardened fronts in Iran. The street protests, mostly led by women, have plunged the political elite into one of the most serious crises in decades. The security apparatus is reacting with extreme severity, and there is no compromise in sight. “There is no way back,” says many people in the country these days.
Triggered by the death of the young Iranian Kurd Jina Mahsa Amini in mid-September, street protests have spread to dozens of cities. The 22-year-old was arrested by the moral guards in Tehran because she is said to have dressed in an un-Islamic way. She died in a hospital just days later. Amini’s family and doctors are challenging the state’s account that the young woman fell into a coma and died because of a previous illness. The accusation: massive police violence.
Large parts of society can identify with the case – they react with horror, anger and sadness. Criticism comes even from conservatives. The protests continue to this day, fueled again and again by state violence and the deaths of other young people. Thousands of videos that are supposed to show violence by the security forces are being distributed on the Internet, which is being shut down and restricted in phases. This increases anger, and the victims become icons of the protests. Many young demonstrators speak of a revolution.
The state is particularly tough in the provinces. Military convoys have even moved into Amini’s homeland, the Kurdish part of Iran. Eyewitnesses report “civil war-like” conditions. The actions of the security forces set in motion a spiral of anger. “Every time the state intervenes, we see that people don’t allow themselves to be intimidated,” says Katajun Amirpur, a professor of Islamic studies at the University of Cologne. It’s about the right to self-determination, “which people are denied and which is represented by the headscarf,” explains Amirpur. “It affects everyone because everyone in this system is not allowed to live out what corresponds to their personal freedom in any way.”
This “revolutionary potential” has been dormant in the country for years. The rejection of a large part of the young protest movement even hits politicians from the reform camp, which was once popular in the West, such as ex-President Mohammed Chatami. No tones of reconciliation can be heard from the leadership. Religious leader and head of state Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was silent for weeks. He then began to blame his arch-enemies for the uprising and now even speaks of conspiracy and terrorism.
Amirpur doubts that the state elite will give in. The people in power have learned a historical lesson – they came to power because the shah was willing to make concessions at some point. “It was these concessions that caused the system to collapse. Because the revolutionaries saw that we could actually achieve something.” The big concern is now with a view to the protesters: “As soon as they get even the little finger, they want the whole hand.”
Where the protests are headed is also controversial among experts. The influential Revolutionary Guards, the elite unit loyal to the system, which has also risen to become an economic power for years, could play a decisive role. “There is also a risk in Iran that some Revolutionary Guards will dare to stage a military coup. There are enough influential Revolutionary Guards that could put an end to this theocracy,” explains Amirpur. Khamenei is indisputably the most powerful man in the country.
An Iranian university lecturer explains that the elite knew they were unpopular. But the extent of the hatred of the leadership’s political style shocked her too. The academic also finds it significant that hardly any protesters criticize the government under President Ebrahim Raisi. The president who was elected with the lowest voter turnout since the founding of the Islamic Republic is said to be too weak. “The demonstrators have support at home and abroad, but empty hands. The regime has everything, but nobody wants or likes it,” summarizes the professor. Even if the influence of the Revolutionary Guards should increase, Amirpur does not believe in an end to the freedom movement. The knowledge of what the rule of law and democracy means is too great.
Iran today is more feminine, more national and less religious than at the beginning of the Islamic Revolution in 1979. “This desire for freedom and, above all, the knowledge about what a better Iran could look like is there.” It was very inconsistent that the state made women second-class citizens while at the same time allowing them to become professors and doctors and study. “It’s completely clear that it will eventually explode.”
