Undoubted progress has been made, the terms of the Trilateral Memorandum signed last year in Madrid are being gradually implemented and differences are being closed, but there is still work to be done to satisfy Turkish demands. Sweden will not be at the NATO Summit next week in Lithuania as a full member of the Atlantic Alliance, but everyone is confident that there, on Monday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will give the final green light to the long-awaited ratification of the which would be the 32nd member.
That is the message that the Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, conveyed this Thursday in Brussels, after chairing a meeting with senior representatives of both governments. In May 2022, Sweden and Finland formally applied to join NATO, and in June they were invited by the organization, but Ankara made it clear very soon that the process would not be formalized if their claims are not heard: legal changes in both countries to persecuting Kurdish exiles, pressure on the PKK, pressure on opponents who campaign against Erdogan from Europe, cooperation on intelligence issues, extraditions of a series of very specific people and the lifting of the ban on the sale of military material that weighed about his government. In Madrid, the three countries signed a Memorandum that technically unblocked the start of the process, but a year later only Finland has joined. Sweden is still waiting, both for Erdogan and for Hungary, which is taking the opportunity to push its own agenda by also blocking parliamentary ratification of the accession.
“Sweden has amended its constitution, lifted the ban on arms sales to Turkey, toughened its anti-terror legislation and made significant progress against the PKK. There is very good progress. Membership is in everyone’s interest and we want to complete it as soon as possible. We have seen anti-Turkish and anti-NATO demonstrations in Sweden that seek to prevent and disrupt anti-terrorist cooperation and weaken the Alliance. The only ones who benefit from these provocations are those who want to split NATO. Further delays in ratification are only welcome by the PKK and Putin. On Monday there will be a meeting between Erdogan and the Swedish prime minister, it will be the next step and we trust that there will be good news,” explained the secretary general in an appearance from the headquarters in Brussels.
Sweden have done more than they thought they would have to, but Ankara doesn’t see enough of it. The tension has eased somewhat after the Turkish elections, which have given Erdogan a new mandate, but he continues to ask for more guarantees and concessions. Asked about it, Stoltenberg did not want to give details, but has indicated that from the Turkish point of view, Sweden can always “give more weapons licences, offer more intelligence, give more anti-terrorist cooperation.” The Constitution has already changed, the laws have become tougher, but the Swedish government has reiterated that it cannot approve all the extraditions that were demanded of it from the beginning, since there is a separation of powers and the decision must be made by the courts, not by the Executive.
The choreography is now simple. The delegations will continue to work against the clock throughout the weekend so that on Monday, tracing what happened in Madrid, a great festive advance can be made on the eve of the arrival of the leaders of the 31 allies. Diplomatic sources have been saying for months that this has always been the Turkish calendar, after the elections and postponing ratification until September at the earliest (almost parallel to the Hungarian blackmail). But for that there must be progress in the next 72 hours at the diplomatic and ministerial level.
“The only way to settle differences is what we always do in NATO: sit down, consult and move forward. Today we have made good progress and that is why I think it is possible to have a decision next week. We all agree that the ratification of Swedish membership should occur as soon as possible,” said Stoltenberg, who has been ratified by the Atlantic Council for a third extension in his mandate, so he will continue to lead until October 1, 2024.
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