Pension reform: the government convinced of having a majority before the parliamentary conclave

“A majority exists” in favor of the pension reform project, which will indeed be the subject of a vote in the National Assembly, during its final examination, assured Tuesday March 14 the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne. “The Joint Joint Committee [CMP] on our pension project will meet tomorrow. You will then be asked to express your views on the pension reform. Not about supporting the government, but about this project, and this project only! “, she launched in the hemicycle, during the session of questions to the government.

The executive thus seems to rule out the possibility of recourse to Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which would allow adoption without a vote but the use of which is considered “dangerous” by the unions opposed to the project. The government, which does not have an absolute majority at the Palais-Bourbon, must convince the camp of Les Républicains (LR) deputies, who still seem divided on the text. “If the CMP has a common text, this text will have a majority” Thursday in the Senate and then in the Assembly, also said Tuesday on CNews the Minister of Labor, Olivier Dussopt.

The seven deputies and seven senators, and as many alternates who make up this body, will try to agree on a common text on Wednesday morning at the Palais-Bourbon. They will meet behind closed doors as is customary, under the pressure of an eighth day of demonstrations by opponents of the reform.

Social mobilization against the project seems to be running out of steam, but its consequences remain particularly unpleasant in several cities: heaps of garbage litter the streets, with 6,600 tons of waste not collected in Paris alone. In Toulouse, the CGT, which announces a hardening of the movement, claimed a power outage which affected 30,000 homes and businesses in the city center.

“Shenanigans”

In the Assembly, even if a compromise is likely within the joint commission, where the macronists and the right are in the majority, the tension is palpable and the suspense still immense on the vote which will follow Thursday. The President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, said no on Tuesday at the request of the Socialists and La France insoumise (LFI) for an audio and video broadcast of the meeting of the joint joint committee. Its debates will therefore be the subject of a written report, which may be published on the Assembly website several hours or even days later.

Boris Vallaud, leader of the Socialist deputies, had asked to make this debate public, so that the institutions show themselves up to the “political moment”. LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard supported the request, to avoid “a secret camera with arrangements, schemes and shenanigans”. In response to Ms. Braun-Pivet’s decision, LFI is expected to live-tweet the deliberations of the conclave. After the response of the President of the Assembly, the deputy Hadrien Clouet (LFI), substitute member of this CMP, promised to “take care of the written report” and made an appointment on social networks.

The parliamentarians are preparing their weapons and their arguments for the conclave. “This CMP is not a dinner with friends,” warned Mr. Clouet. Thomas Ménagé, full member for the Rassemblement national group, admits that “we will be partly spectators of something that has already been decided elsewhere”. The government has already conceded to the right a decline in the retirement age to 64, not 65, as well as an increase in small pensions extended to current retirees.

“Financial Effects”

Within the LR group, it is emphasized that the “only subject” will be that of long careers. Certain concessions on this subject made to LR under the impetus of deputy Aurélien Pradié could disappear from the final text, however warned Monday the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, concerned about the financial “balance” of the reform. As for the senior CDI, voted by the Senate with a right-wing majority, “there is a discussion (…) to ensure that the financial effects are not too significant,” said Olivier Dussopt, the Minister of Labor.

The right could also put back on the table an amendment which requires that the abolition of special pension schemes, more generous, also concerns current employees. It could not have been voted on in the Senate. This commission, “it may be a bit long”, notes Charles de Courson, centrist deputy of the group Freedoms, independents, overseas and territories and veteran of the Assembly.

Eyes are already on Thursday in the Assembly, where deputies opposed to the reform are preparing a motion to reject the text altogether, if it is put to the vote, and a “motion of cross-partisan censure” against the government. . Laurent Berger, secretary general of the CFDT, again called on the government to put the reform to a vote, warning against the consequences of a forced passage via 49.3, an option which must first be authorized by the Council of Ministers.

As for blockages, Wednesday should not be a “black day” in public transport, with less disruption than before, according to the Minister of Transport, Clément Beaune. Most French refineries remained blocked on Tuesday, but strikers were reluctant to shut down sites completely.