Will the next truce attempt be successful in Sudan? On Tuesday May 2, the South Sudanese neighbor claimed to have won an “agreement in principle” from the two warring generals for a one-week truce. Since April 15, army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhane and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdane Daglo, at the head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), have been vying for power, plunging Sudan into a “real disaster,” according to the UN.
So far, no ceasefire has been observed. Including the one in effect since Monday, May 1 and violated from its inception. It has therefore been more than two weeks that the country has been plagued by fierce fighting between the two generals. This truce “from May 4 to 11” announced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of South Sudan could therefore be a small breath of fresh air for the inhabitants.
Farhan Haq, deputy spokesman for UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, welcomed the announcement. “First, of course, we’ll have to see if it’s accepted by all parties,” he nevertheless said at a press briefing. However, no belligerent immediately commented on the South Sudanese declaration. Meanwhile, several witnesses have reported “aerial bombings” in Khartoum.
Acting on the initiative of the East African regional organization Igad, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir pleaded that they take advantage of this truce “to appoint representatives and propose a date for the start of negotiations” in order to obtain a permanent ceasefire. A few days earlier, it was the UN envoy to Sudan, Volker Perthes, who had indicated that the two belligerents had said they were “ready to start technical discussions” which “could be held in Saudi Arabia”. But a return to political negotiations will only be possible after a real truce, he insisted.
After the Saudi authorities, an emissary from General Burhane met with the Egyptian authorities and the Arab League. He too pleaded for the international community to negotiate a truce.
Since the clashes began, more than 500 people have died and thousands have been injured, mostly in Khartoum and western Darfur, according to health ministry figures. A balance sheet which could be largely underestimated according to the UN. More than 330,000 people have been displaced and 100,000 have left for neighboring countries, according to the UN, which expects eight times as many refugees. And those who remain have to live with shortages of water, electricity and food.
Ernst Jan Hogendoorn, an expert on Sudan, expects a “staggering humanitarian catastrophe, similar to that in Somalia, Syria or Yemen”, with the risk of regional destabilization. From Nairobi, the head of the UN for humanitarian affairs, Martin Griffiths, is trying to negotiate the entry of aid while the bombings and looting have spared neither hospitals nor humanitarian organizations.
After France or the United States, Russia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have indicated that they have evacuated hundreds of their nationals.
In their 2021 putsch, Burhane and Daglo together ousted the civilians with whom they had shared power since the fall of dictator Omar al-Bashir two years earlier. But they are divided on the question of the integration of the FSR in the army.
