After Gabon, the French head of state, Emmanuel Macron, arrives this March 3 in Luanda, capital of Angola, a Portuguese-speaking country, for a visit at no charge. Initially planned before the pandemic, this step is timely for the president, who wants to make Angola an illustration of the new French strategy in Africa… far from the old backyard. The idea for Paris is to attract new French operators to Angola – the second largest oil producer in Africa after Nigeria – in the wake of TotalEnergies. Over the decades, Angola has become a key country in the group’s operation on the continent. But the economy of the southern African country, which derives most of its income from black gold and has suffered from falling prices since 2014, has been trying for years to diversify its economy. Ex-President Dos Santos’ successor, Joao Lourenço, is increasingly looking to Western partners after giving prominence to Chinese, Russians, Turks and others. Daniel Ribant, Belgian consultant and author specializing in Angola, deciphers the economic stakes of this trip.

Le Point Afrique: To what extent is President Macron’s trip to this former Portuguese colony an issue for France, while competition is fierce in the economic field, with the Chinese, the Russians or the Turks?

Daniel Ribant: Long limited to its African backyard, French policy towards the continent has undergone a major shift since the start of the Macron presidency. The opening is made both towards countries of the English-speaking and Portuguese-speaking spheres, with trips to Nigeria and Ghana, and a warm reception of the new Angolan president, Jao Lourenço, in Paris, the first outside his country.

The Covid crisis will not have allowed France to give the full measure of this policy. Of the three countries, Angola appears today to be the one offering the most interest at the economic and commercial level, but also strategically.

The presidential trip is also part of a clear rapprochement of Angola with the Western powers, especially [the United States], after long, sometimes forced, companionships with China and Russia.

But beware. This all-out policy of openness has its limits. Certainly, all investments are welcome in Angola, but will the country be able to [give up] for very long to choose sides in an increasingly conflicting world? The French president will perhaps give his Angolan counterpart [some] lessons in his policy of “at the same time”, already very difficult to achieve at the national level, but what to say at the international level… The Ukrainian crisis and the Angolan contortions during the votes at the United Nations are the perfect demonstration of this.

But how can we speak of French interest in Angola without recalling the already very long-standing presence of the Total and Castel groups, veritable bridgeheads of French interests in Angola. These two companies are also among the largest employers in the country.

What is new are the desires of Paris to invest in the Angolan agricultural sector. We announce the signing of a major contract, financing…

However, trade between Paris and Luanda is based on hydrocarbons. Is that changing?

Trade between France and Angola is, in fact, marked above all by hydrocarbons, which experienced a significant boom last year due to the war in Ukraine and the sharp increase in prices. I only have official figures for the first half of 2022. Angolan exports were close to 21 billion dollars, of which 94% for hydrocarbons alone, while imports represented some 8 billion dollars with nearly 2 billion for fuels alone. refined. As we can see, oil absorbs a large part of bilateral trade, and France occupies only twelfth place among supplier countries with a market share of 2.2%.

But its importance cannot be apprehended by these criteria alone, because in terms of direct investment (FDI), France (or rather Total) is among the best. It should also be noted that AFD, present in Angola since 2018, has already financed projects for some 800 million euros.

Angola is experiencing immense difficulties since the fall in oil prices. How is the country trying to recover, in particular through its all-out privatization projects and the diversification of its economy at full speed? Is the country on the way to turning the page on the Dos Santos era for good?

The answer to your question is not simple, because the road to development is long and strewn with pitfalls, especially for a country that has taken such bad habits with artificial development based on mineral resources alone. As a minister once told me, in Angola, behind every stone there is a problem.

I would first say that the surge in oil and gas prices as well as the revaluation of the local currency against major currencies has helped the country by providing welcome liquidity and significantly improving its debt to GNP ratio (65% ). The major privatization program is yielding results that are still limited for the moment and it cannot be said that foreign investment is there. In terms of the fight against corruption, progress has undeniably been made, but recent events show us that we must be vigilant, because some may fall back into their old ways.

Angola’s problem is that it has to deal with problems of a different nature at the same time. It must build the infrastructures of a diversified economy, finally based on its real wealth, while [facing] the basic needs of an impoverished population. He must work both urgently and in the long term. This is a major challenge for the current regime and I hope that the French delegation can provide solutions. Because what has fundamentally changed compared to the Dos Santos era is that the Angolans, often judged as too haughty, finally accept our help and our expertise.