Wagner's Rebellion: "Prigozhin is doomed"

Evgueni Prigojine, 62, took the plunge. The boss of the Wagner mercenary company, in a struggle for months with the military hierarchy, goes into rebellion. His men now occupy the army headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, a Russian city near the Ukrainian border and a center for the coordination of military operations.

His goal: to overthrow Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valeri Guerassimov, who he considers guilty of depriving him of ammunition, medals and bombing his camps. Prigozhin claims his troops shot down a Russian helicopter. A column of Wagner military vehicles was also reportedly seen on the highway towards Moscow. “It’s a stab in the back of our people and our country,” Vladimir Putin said, promising “unavoidable punishments.” “The president made a big mistake, Prigozhin retorted, we are patriots… We don’t want our country to continue to live in corruption, lies and bureaucracy.”

Russian political scientist Tatiana Stanovaya, head of the R. Politik Institute and who has several sources within the Kremlin, considers Prigojine’s gamble almost impossible.

Le Point: Can Prigojine rally part of the power to his cause?

Tatiana Stonovaya: Within the elite, the military hierarchy and among senior officials, there is no support for Prigozhin even though some may resent Putin or take an anti-war stance. They understand that Prigozhin has gone too far. In the current situation, Prigozhin is doomed.

Is the regular army so anti-Prigozhin?

Prigozhin claims he has 25,000 men ready to die… Will the matter be that simple?

At this point, many observers question the figure he puts forward.

So how do you explain his stubbornness?

Do you think Russia is on the verge of a civil war?

I don’t think the conditions are met. Look at the attitude of people in big cities. Do they come out into the street shouting “Prigojine president!” ? Opposite, Putin understood that he had to hold a speech of firmness and call for the destruction of Wagner. On the other hand, if the situation worsens, I do not exclude that in two years the conditions will be there.