An African mission is expected in Kiev on Friday and then in Saint Petersburg the next day, for a peace mediation aimed at resolving the conflict between the two countries, even if the last-minute withdrawal of several members of the delegation seems to cloud the chances of success .

Four African heads of state, a prime minister and a special envoy are due to start talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, then his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

However, this mediation intervenes in the midst of the Ukrainian counter-offensive with an intensification of the fighting on the ground.

“In times of escalating conflict, the search for a peaceful solution must be accelerated at the same time,” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said in a statement on Thursday.

“We want to start discussions (…) to see if through joint efforts it would be possible to move closer to peace in Ukraine,” said Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko in a statement. .

But the mission, the latest in a series of so far fruitless diplomatic efforts, does not start under the best auspices.

“The conditions for peaceful and constructive discussions are no longer met” with the intensification of violence, a Congolese diplomatic source told AFP on Wednesday.

And on Thursday evening, Congolese national television announced that President Denis Sassou-Nguesso, whose participation was uncertain, would ultimately not be on the trip. He will be represented by his chief of staff, General Florent Ntsiba, who is said to have arrived in Poland that evening.

Two other heads of state withdrew. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, who tested positive for covid, has chosen a former prime minister as his special envoy. And the Egyptian Abdel Fattah al-Sissi will be replaced by his Prime Minister.

These defections are “likely to weaken the scope of the African initiative”, estimated the Congolese source.

At this stage, only the participation of Mr. Ramaphosa, Senegalese Presidents Macky Sall and Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema, as well as that of Comorian President Azali Assoumani, at the head of the African Union since February, have been confirmed. They must take a train from Poland to reach kyiv on Friday.

Pretoria announced the launch of an African peacekeeping mission last month. Criticized for its closeness to Moscow, South Africa has refused to condemn Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine, claiming to hold a neutral position and want to favor dialogue.

African countries have denounced the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 less unanimously than the major Western powers.

According to experts, the chances of success of the mission are slim. Ukraine has declared that it is not ready for any territorial compromise, even that potentially opens up a way out of the conflict.

African leaders “will not be able to offer us anything in terms of conflict resolution,” said Ukrainian political analyst Anatoliy Oktysiu, interviewed by AFP.

“They cannot play the role of mediators. They have little political weight, they have no influence,” he continued.

Africa is hard hit by rising food prices and the effects of war on world trade.

Ukrainian grain exports – under a deal that Moscow has threatened to quit – but also fertilizer exports, as well as prisoner swaps should be among the topics discussed, analysts said.

For Alex Vines, of the British think tank Chatham House, the mediation “has a chance” of leading to some concessions from the Kremlin, before a Russia-Africa economic summit in Saint Petersburg next month.

“It’s theater,” said Jeremy Seekings, who teaches politics at the University of Cape Town.

Mr Ramaphosa ‘really needs something to restore his credibility. And he’s hanging on to the branches with that blow which is far from guaranteed’.

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16/06/2023 04:24:45 – Johannesburg (AFP) – © 2023 AFP