With each publication of a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), scientists fear that their work will be overshadowed by current events: the war in Ukraine, pension reform… But Monday 20 March, it was a technical problem at the United Nations that muzzled the IPCC.
For nearly thirty minutes, speakers at the press conference had their microphones muted on the internet, including UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, much to the chagrin of the three thousand journalists around the world who were tuned in. The situation was finally restored and the summary report closing the sixth work cycle of the IPCC, launched in 2015, was presented. A crucial document for the future of humanity and living things on Earth.
This report is very different from previous ones, those published up to 2014, because it does not seek to prove the existence of global warming, or even its attribution to human activity. He considers these facts to be proven, while continuing to document them as accurately as possible.
This allows scientists to focus on solutions aimed at limiting global warming and adapting to it. The next stage, in a way, no offense to climatosceptics, who will remain on the quay.
This is the first summary report intended to inform decision-makers and the public on concrete solutions to limit global warming, and the prospects for life in a warmer world where catastrophic events will be more numerous and more violent.
All with a warming assumption of 1.5°C which already seems out of reach, given the little effort committed around the world. The planet is already 1.1°C warmer on average than before the industrial era. In France, for example, the government is working on scenarios beyond 3°C of warming by 2100…
“The main difference with previous reports is that we offer a wide range of adaptation options, which depend on the context in which they are applied: a solution can be very useful somewhere, but counterproductive somewhere else,” added Indian Aditi Mukherji, lead author and scientific coordinator of the report, while warning that “technology alone will not get us” to a sustainable model.
“This report also shows that reducing emissions is more urgent than previous reports have suggested: action in this decade is crucial to securing a livable future,” said the South African researcher. Christopher Trisos.
“We are also interested in the collateral benefits of solutions for adapting to and limiting global warming, for example the reduction of greenhouse gases, which is generally accompanied by a reduction in the emission of pollutants harmful to human health, or the shift towards healthier diets which is accompanied by a reallocation of land for the benefit of biodiversity,” he added.
Thus, in all the fields concerned, from energy to water supply, food or even health, scientists have dissected the solutions to limit the extent and the consequences of an inevitable warming, of which only the extent remains unknown.
For energy production, for example, the development of solar and wind power leads the recommendations, which then recommend the reduction of methane emissions, a greenhouse gas which stays in the atmosphere for a shorter time but warms 80 times more than CO2, in the exploitation of coal, oil and gas. Nuclear power, bioenergy and even geothermal energy are also part of the solutions.
In the “water, land and food” category, reducing ecosystem conversion, including land take, is the top recommendation, followed by carbon sequestration in agriculture, ecosystem restoration and reforestation. Conversion to a sustainable and healthy diet, reduction of methane in agriculture and reduction of food waste are also listed.
Development trajectories have been drawn for the future, depending on the ambition of the actions and their implementation timeframe. In this tree of possible futures, the most optimistic branches will become inaccessible very quickly if the world continues on its current path for several years.
But despite the reminder of the catastrophic human, social, biological and financial consequences that will accompany these changes, it is not certain that this new report will be enough to motivate political and private decision-makers.
