Only a few hours after the quake, the Karlsruhe company Risklayer already estimates the number of victims in the tens of thousands – at a time when little is known about the affected area. But according to their latest forecast, the number could increase significantly.
In the first hours after the devastating earthquake in Turkey, no one knows the full extent. About 40 deaths are initially mentioned. But around the same time, a company specializing in the analysis of natural disasters published its own estimate: “(…) approx. 11,400 deaths (3200 to 25,900) and approx. 14 billion USD in damage (6.5 to 23 billion). Not Good!” said a tweet from Risklayer, posted just three hours after the quake. A few hours later, the estimate is revised upwards to 29,200 deaths.
Only after four more days does it become clear how frighteningly close Risklayer was with his forecasts. As of Friday, almost 23,000 people have died in Turkey and Syria, but thousands more are believed to be buried under the rubble. How was Risklayer, a spin-off from the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, able to make such predictions so quickly?
“We’ve been doing quick damage estimates after earthquakes for 14 years,” Risklayer boss James Daniell replies by email to ntv.de’s request. Since 2010 he has also been jointly responsible for the earthquake data website Earthquake-report.com. A few years ago, it was able to predict fatalities and economic damage within 30 minutes of an earthquake anywhere in the world.
Risklayer relies on CATDAT, a massive database of historical catastrophe losses developed by Daniell since 2003, for its disaster magnitude calculations. “CATDAT uses a vast amount of data on building types, past death rates, past earthquakes, socioeconomic data, disaster relief data and building code data, even time of day,” writes Daniell. This data, which ranged from 1900 to 2022, would be used to generate lightning-fast damage estimates for new events.
“The more earthquakes there have been in the country in the past, the better the model,” says Daniell. “Turkey has had a lot of earthquakes, so there are a lot of data points.” In Syria, on the other hand, there have not been that many events in the past – and in view of the conflict there are also quite a few uncertainties, for example about the type of construction or where people live.
What is the advantage of the quick analyses? According to Risklayer’s website, information that is readily available is key to understanding the scale and impact of disasters. “Residents need to know what’s been happening in their neighborhoods, and governments and businesses want to know what impact it might be having on their livelihoods.”
In the case of the quake in Turkey, Risklayer was initially correct in saying that the victims numbered in the tens of thousands. But since then, the company has continued to revise its estimates upwards. Update: On Thursday, Risklayer tweeted: “Unfortunately, we have seen another day of increased damage patterns in various cities (mainly in the south) and some refinements to the model,” it said in English. The current death estimate is therefore now: 52,355.
The timing on February 6, 2023
February 10, 2023
