Niger: Understanding the situation after the coup in six questions

On July 26, soldiers staged a coup in Niger and ousted the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. Forty-eight hours later, General Abdourahamane Tiani, president of the newly born National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP), proclaimed himself head of state. Yet another putsch in the region, after those that occurred in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea between 2020 and 2022.

The international community is calling for the restoration of constitutional order and the release of the overthrown president, who has neither left the country nor resigned. Economic sanctions and condemnations have not made the putschists back down, nor has the threat, which is not unanimous, of the use of force brandished by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

From now on, the Nigerien junta counts on the support of the military regimes of Ouagadougou and Bamako. Update on the situation.

On July 26, putschist soldiers, members of the presidential guard, an elite unit, overthrew the president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum. The head of state, his partner and his son have since been kept in the official residence, inside the presidential palace.

“This follows the continued deterioration of the security situation, poor economic and social governance,” Colonel Major Amadou Abdramane said on behalf of the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP) on July 27, which had just see the day.

It was on July 28, after two days of uncertainty and negotiations, that General Abdourahamane Tiani, the head of the presidential guard, declared himself head of state. He claims to have been “motivated by the sole desire to preserve” Niger.

According to several Nigerien and foreign sources, the head of the junta was about to be relieved of his duties by Mohamed Bazoum. But the Prime Minister, Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou, denied, assuring in an interview with Le Monde that this subject was “not on the agenda” of the Council of Ministers which was to be held on July 27, and that “it there was also no decree to that effect”.

The first step towards a transitional government was initiated on Monday August 7. A prime minister has been appointed, Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine.

Supporters of Mohamed Bazoum attempted to approach his residence on July 26. They demanded the release of the president, elected with 55.75% of the votes in the second round of the presidential election in February 2021. Very quickly, they were dispersed by shots from the presidential guard, causing jostling. One protester was injured.

The new military authorities were also supported during several demonstrations where thousands of people mobilized: July 30, August 3, the anniversary of the country’s independence, as well as August 6.

During the July 30 march in Niamey, called by an anti-Operation Barkhane movement of the French army, demonstrators chanted pro-Russian, anti-French and pro-junta slogans. “Long live Poutine”, “Long live Russia”, “Down with France”, “Long live the Nigerian army!” The French embassy was also targeted by demonstrators, denouncing the presence of the former colonial power. This attack prompted Paris to evacuate its nationals. The United States, Spain and Italy followed suit.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the African Union (AU), the European Union (EU), France and the United States have condemned the kidnapping of Mohamed Bazoum, claiming his release and his return to power. Russia called for pacifism. In vain, an ECOWAS delegation had been sent to Niamey to “reason with Tiani and offer him a country of exile”, said Bola Tinubu, president of the community and of Nigeria, on July 26. On the night of August 3 to 4, the delegation turned around, having been unable to meet the ousted president or the ruling junta.

Once the event was clearly qualified as a coup, France on July 29 suspended its development aid and budget support to Niger, not recognizing the new authorities. The European Union has also suspended “all its cooperative actions”. ECOWAS, for its part, imposed financial sanctions and gave the putschists a week to restore constitutional order, notably threatening to “use force” if necessary. In response, the CNSP promised an “immediate response” in the event of an attack.

The military regimes of Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea, members of the organization, have expressed their disagreement with the decisions of ECOWAS. The military leaders in power in Ouagadougou and Bamako for their part warned that “any military intervention against Niger” would be likened “to a declaration of war” against them. They also threatened to leave the economic community and affirmed their support for the Nigerien putschists.

ECOWAS, chaired by Nigeria, had drawn the outlines of a possible military intervention, according to an official of the regional organization. Senegal was ready to mobilize its army, but several countries were reluctant to intervene. Algeria, a country bordering Niger, but which is not a member of ECOWAS, expressed concern about the consequences on its territory and in the Sahel region. The Nigerian Senate believes that civil society would pay a heavy price, as would northern Nigeria, which shares a 1,500 kilometer border with Niger.

The ECOWAS ultimatum expired on Sunday August 6. The putschists did not give in to the pressure. “Faced with the threat of intervention”, the authorities closed the air borders, which had reopened on August 2 after an initial closure. Their Malian and Burkinabé supporters sent a joint delegation to show their “solidarity”.

A military intervention would be the last resort of the West African organization, which wishes to favor a diplomatic solution. The leaders of the West African bloc countries “would prefer a resolution achieved through diplomatic means, through peaceful means, rather than any other”, the ECOWAS spokesperson reported, in a first statement after the expiry of the ‘ultimatum. “No option has been ruled out,” he said, however.

Niger hosts a French military force as part of its counter-terrorism policy in the Sahel, an extension of Operation “Barkhane”, whose withdrawal from Mali was announced after the installation of a Malian military regime.

The evacuation of the 1,500 French soldiers is not planned, and their presence has been denounced by the putschists. Some 1,100 American soldiers are also deployed there, as part of the anti-jihadist fight. German and Italian soldiers are also present in Niger. These military forces are not engaged in combat or military intervention.

Victoria Nuland, the number two in American diplomacy, met the new chief of staff of the army but could not speak with General Tiani or with the overthrown president, Mr. Bazoum. She says she has proposed solutions for a restoration of democracy, but she does not seem to have convinced the putschists.

According to Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou, the prime minister of the ousted president, the military junta asked the ECOWAS delegation to return after the latter left following unsuccessful mediation. The mission was to be there on Tuesday, assured the head of government on TV5 Monde, but the military regime says it cannot accommodate it for security reasons. “The current context of anger and revolt of the populations following the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS does not allow the reception of the said delegation in the serenity and security required”, explains an official letter from the Nigerien Ministry of Foreign Affairs addressed to the representation of ECOWAS in Niamey, dated Monday and quoted by Agence France-Presse.

Germany, Italy and the United States pleaded for such a response and called for further discussions with the new military authorities. An ECOWAS emergency session is expected to be held Thursday in Abuja, capital of Nigeria, on the situation in Niger. New resolutions could be taken.