The United States wants it to continue, and when the world’s leading military force and heart of the Alliance wants something firmly, it’s hard not to get away with it. The Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, has all the ballots to continue another year at the helm of NATO. His term, after already several consecutive extensions, ends in September of this year, and it was expected that the summit that will bring together the leaders of the 31 members on July 11 and 12 in Lithuania would choose his successor. But if nothing drastically and unexpectedly changes in the next few hours, the Norwegian politician will stay at the helm for a bit longer, to complete at least the Washington Summit of July 2024, celebrating the 75th anniversary.
Alliance sources confirm to this newspaper that “everything is very, very advanced”, but that the final decision will not be taken before Monday or Tuesday at the headquarters in Brussels. Several diplomats confirmed this Thursday to AFP that the extension was practically finished. “Everyone is in the same position. The announcement will be formalized and announced in the next week,” they indicate. No sharp turns are expected, but the contradictory messages from Stoltenberg himself, who this week has repeated that he had no intention of repeating and that he was not presenting his name anywhere, have added to the confusion.
The Secretary General took office on October 1, 2014, after having been Prime Minister of his country and a quick passage through the United Nations. In theory for only five years, but given that he was pretty much the only world leader who managed to find a way to deal with and get along with Donald Trump, without incurring his anger and navigating even his repeated threats to renounce collective defense or even break the Alliance, he was asked to go on a little longer, until 2022. That year, however, the Ukrainian war broke out, and no one saw fit for him to step aside in the midst of the greatest threat to the Alliance in decades, so his mandate was extended once more, until September 30 of this year.
It seemed the final one, and candidates of all kinds had begun to emerge, from the United Kingdom Defense Secretary, Ben Wallace, to the Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas. Going through the Danish leader Mette Frederiksen, very interested, or the Canadian Foreign Minister, Chrystia Freeland. Mark Rutte, at the head of an increasingly weak Dutch Executive, or the presidents of Romania and Slovakia also sounded strong. Even Mario Draghi and Pedro Sánchez repeated themselves in the pools. But Washington wanted continuity and everything indicates that he will get it.
The one who has said it most clearly is Wallace. The Briton did not hide his disappointment a few days ago, in a conversation with The Economist, assuming that there was nothing to do, since Joe Biden and his team had made the decision. They support the Norwegian because he has been able to stay for almost a decade without causing tensions or making enemies. Because he knew how to deal with Trump, but also with Emmanuel Macron when he denounced the “brain death” of the Alliance. Because he brokered Turkey’s removal of Finland’s accession veto and is paving the way for Sweden to do the same. Because they like his short and dry style, without big statements or a search for glory. Because he hasn’t made any notable mistakes in his thousands of appearances before the media, and because he has kept his cool with Russia time and time again.
It is the safe option and Washington, which is holding elections next year, does not want surprises, blunders or anything that could lead to an escalation with Moscow, especially now that instability is the main threat, after the coup or rebellion of the Wagner group. “The next general secretary will be Jens Stoltenberg,” Kallas also accepted this week in Brussels, taking it for granted that there will be no unforeseen events.
The exact term for this new extension has not been closed, but given that the Alliance has delayed the 2024 summit in which Washington will host the celebrations for its 75th anniversary from April to July, everything suggests that one more year would be ideal. This allowed his replacement to be closed in the US, also coinciding with the moment in which the EU will also have to renew the presidencies of the European Commission, the Council, the European Parliament and the position of the high representative, after the European elections in June . The position will add variables to a process that is in itself extremely complicated, but it will also open up options to other types of profiles, as happened in July 2019, when totally unexpected names such as Ursula von der Leyen or David Sassoli went to the first line of continental politics.
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