94 million Nigerian voters are being called to the polls this Saturday, February 25 to elect a successor to outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari and choose members of the federal parliament. The vote of young people will be particularly scrutinized, the under 35s representing 39% of those registered on the lists in a country where 65% of the population is under 25 years old. The presidential election promises to be historic in the most populous country in Africa. First, because it is the most open – and the most contested – since the return of democracy to Nigeria in 1999, and second, these elections are being held in a particularly complex context for the federal republic of 36 states plus the territory from the federal capital Abuja. All of Africa is watching what is happening in Nigeria as the country has been going through crisis after crisis in recent years. Violence has exploded, corruption remains endemic, hopeless youth, the middle classes no longer want to stay, they take to their heels through the “japa” (flee, in Yoruba) movement. Despite all this data, Nigeria remains an African giant and the largest democracy on the continent. The success of these elections could well give a new democratic impetus that Africa so badly needs and put Nigeria back on a path of more peaceful and sustainable transformation. Teniola Tayo, political and economic analyst and also associate researcher at the think tank WATHI, based in Dakar, returns for Le Point Afrique to the challenges of these elections.
Le Point Afrique: The elections taking place this Saturday are very popular on the spot and far beyond, in West Africa and on the rest of the African continent, how do you explain it?
Teniola Tayo: Several factors can be advanced. First, the fact that the country is returning to a certain democratic fervor, there is a thirst for democracy, for change. For the presidential election, never has an election seemed both so open and so unpredictable since 1999.
Then, Nigeria is a great nation of more than 200 million inhabitants, known throughout the world as much for its economic wealth, in particular its oil, as for its contribution to culture, in literature, with its Nollywood cinema, its music, Afrobeat or the dynamism of its entrepreneurs in technology.
In the African context, Nigeria remains the largest economy in Africa, in terms of GDP. It is the economic engine of West Africa, and its GDP can represent up to 65% of all the countries of the Community of West African States, ECOWAS. Everything that happens in Nigeria has a big influence on the whole African continent. So when its economy goes bad, other African economies are also impacted.
This analysis is valid for the issue of terrorism. Nigeria has failed to eradicate Boko Haram, which was born on its soil, and in recent years the group has metastasized to Niger, Cameroon, and Chad. These same states host hundreds of thousands of Nigerian refugees on their territory, demonstrating the intertwining that exists between the country and its immediate neighbours. Until Nigeria succeeds in destroying Boko Haram, other countries will also suffer from its attacks.
What are the most concerning issues for Nigerians?
Expectations are high among the populations. Nigeria has been in decline in recent years. Violence is almost daily, whether it comes from terrorist groups, bandits or others. Oil production is declining, the economy has plummeted, unemployment is at record highs, and so on.
Growing insecurity weighs on the economic outlook, especially since the government has no budgetary room for manoeuvre, and the reforms that should have been carried out to limit the effects of external and internal shocks have not been carried out.
This month, a currency overhaul created a crippling nationwide cash shortage and led to protests. It is almost impossible to get cash now. And the old currency is no longer accepted. Initially, one of the stated goals of the central bank was to prevent electoral contestants from buying votes.
Why are these elections a key test for the future of democracy?
Politically, Nigeria is truly at a crossroads. It is a federal republic with different layers of administrations, regions, states, subdivisions etc. The other major fact is the composition of the country, multi-ethnic, between the predominantly Muslim north and the Christian south, the different ethnic groups, such as the Hausa-Fulani or Fulani from the north, the Igbo found in the south -east, the Yoruba in the south-west, the ethnic groups of the Niger delta, for the most identified.
All these elements illustrate the difficulties that must be taken into account to better understand the upheavals that the country has been experiencing for more than sixty years. Everything happens as if since the end of colonization, Nigeria has never built itself as a nation.
Everything happens as if there was no cohesion, everyone defends their interests on their side, considering that the State is incapable of protecting the Nigerian people. Look for example at what is happening in the oil-rich Niger Delta, conflicts regularly erupt between ethnic groups. Militias have been formed in this region to defend the populations, so that they too benefit from the oil windfall, in their actions, they do not hesitate to destroy pipelines and attack oil companies.
In southeastern Nigeria, where the Igbo ethnic group lives, separatist groups are fighting for independence for their region, Biafra, as in the 1960s.
What is President Buhari’s share of responsibility for the situation the country is going through?
Buhari’s record is more nuanced than it appears. He promised to destroy Boko Haram at the end of his term, he didn’t quite succeed, but he didn’t quite fail either. Since it is clear that the Boko Haram group has weakened even if it has been exported. What is worrying is to see the offshoots of the Islamic State in the region, they have grown in prevalence.
In contrast, the incumbent president has failed in his ability to provide security for all Nigerians. Communal violence, kidnappings including of students, and banditry have increased sharply.
President Buhari was unable to respond to all of these challenges, as he came to power just as oil prices crashed, reducing government revenue. To be more exact, Buhari went all out on the fight against Boko Haram by strengthening the army. The latter is now more seasoned, equipped with new military means and the results are there. The budget was therefore limited for the rest. As for the subject of separatist demands, he was not able to find adequate answers, there was a lot of violence.
The vote of young people will be particularly scrutinized during these elections, how do young people intend to weigh in the future of the country?
Yes, this is a very important fact. Because you know, the frustrations of young people in particular, over 40% of whom are unemployed or underemployed, fueled the rise of an outsider candidate, Peter Obi, who is renowned for his integrity. He is the candidate who seems closest to the young people also because he is – at 61 – the youngest of the three favorite candidates, he was governor of the state of Anambra, in the South East, of 2007 to 2014. From his governance, he left an extremely positive image. Compared to these two rivals, the former Governor of Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the businessman, Atiku Abubakar, regulars in Nigerian politics.
Many young Nigerians who support Peter Obi became politically engaged during the 2020 protests against the brutality of a branch of the police known as the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). National events
These elections therefore have a very important generational significance.
Only one woman is a presidential candidate. Where are the Nigerian women, yet at the forefront of all the great battles that the country has known, including
It is very difficult as a woman to do politics in Nigeria. It’s a real paradox, when you know the history of the struggles led by women to redress this country each time it is threatened. On this subject, there are real frustrations, because the Nigerian women who invest in politics do so in smaller parties, without great means, without national scope.
For these elections, it is true that we have only one female presidential candidate, but many Nigerian women have run in the primaries within the different parties and 25 women are running for governorships. And it is at this level that changes could occur quickly. One of the gubernatorial candidates in northern Nigeria is in a good position to win. It would be the first time since the advent of democracy in the country that a woman will hold such an important position. If that happened, the situation would change, because all the symbolism is there, this female candidate comes from the north, which means that she has already challenged a certain number of received ideas or even that she has exceeded many shackles, that would be an upheaval!
And regarding the role of women in