The El Niño weather phenomenon, usually associated with an increase in global temperatures, has begun and will continue throughout the year at an intensity that is expected to be “at least moderate”, the United Nations (UN) announced on Tuesday, July 4 .
On June 8, the United States Agency for Oceanic and Atmospheric Observation (NOAA) had already announced the official arrival of El Niño, assuring that it “could lead to new temperature records” in certain regions. According to a bulletin from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published on Tuesday, the probability that this phenomenon will continue during the second half of 2023 is 90%.
WMO scientists expect “it to be at least moderate in strength.” But the effect on global temperatures usually becomes apparent within a year of its development and so will likely be most apparent in 2024. “The arrival of El Niño will dramatically increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the oceans,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas points out in the bulletin.
On average, every two to seven years
“WMO’s announcement of an El Niño event is a signal to governments around the world to prepare to limit the effects on our health, ecosystems and economies,” he added. . In this regard, he also stresses the importance of early warning systems and measures to anticipate extreme weather events associated with this major climatic phenomenon “to save lives and livelihoods”.
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to twelve months. It is a natural climate phenomenon associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. But the current episode “is however part of the context of a climate modified by human activities”, underlines the WMO.
El Niño is generally associated with increased precipitation in parts of southern Latin America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. It can cause severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia, parts of South Asia and Central America. On the other hand, its warm waters can feed hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while they can curb the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.
