The last time Ethiopia declared a state of emergency, the country was on the verge of implosion. It was November 2021, insurgents from the northern region of Tigray were marching towards the capital Addis Ababa. Threatened, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had ended up going to the front himself, calling on all those who could to enlist. Tens of thousands of Tigrayans, suspected of supporting the rebellion, had been arrested.
While the country is still healing its wounds after two years of war, a new fratricidal conflict threatens to break out. Not in Tigray this time, but in the Amhara region, the second most populous in the country, with 25 million inhabitants. On Friday August 4, the Ethiopian government declared a six-month state of emergency there and began deploying troops.
For several days, the federal army and Amhara nationalist militiamen – also called Fanos – have been facing each other across the province. “The Fanos strategy is to stretch the army positions as much as possible. They attacked simultaneously in several towns far apart from each other,” said an aid worker in Addis Ababa.
Internet cut
In an attempt to smother the fire, authorities in the Amhara region – chaired by Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party – urgently called for federal military intervention on Thursday. “If the fighting continues, anarchy will threaten our province,” regional president Yilekal Kefale warned.
On the same day, in Gondar, the second largest city in Amhara, intense clashes took place around the university campus. Students on their way to their exams were caught up in the exchange of fire and artillery. The army then deserted the city. She also left Lalibela – famous for its UNESCO World Heritage-listed rock churches – which is now in the hands of the Fanos, along with dozens of other localities.
The government reacted by cutting off the internet network in the region. The national carrier, Ethiopian Airlines, has also canceled its domestic air routes. “Due to tensions and an increase in violent incidents in the Amhara region, all travel in the area is not recommended unless there is an imperative reason until further notice”, indicates for its part the French embassy to its nationals.
Escalation risks
The crisis, which has been simmering for months, has its roots in the conflict in Tigray. The Amhara regionalists, who fought alongside the federal army between November 2020 and November 2022, now accuse the authorities of wanting to destroy them. In April, Abiy Ahmed decided to disband regional special forces to, he said, “build a strong, centralized army capable of protecting the sovereignty and unity of the country.” But this dissolution was perceived by the Fanos and their supporters as a desire to regain control of the head of government, himself from the Oromo community.
The clashes of recent weeks echo previous uprisings in May 2022 and April 2023, which were brutally suppressed. Tens of thousands of opponents ended up in prison. “Given that politically the debate has not evolved since last year, it is not surprising to observe a return of violence. What is surprising, however, is the scale of the clashes, ”says Mehdi Labzaé, a sociologist specializing in Ethiopia.
Although their number is impossible to assess precisely, the Fanos, well established in the countryside, could bring together tens of thousands of fighters, to which are added the thousands of career soldiers who have gone underground in opposition to Abiy’s recent project. Ahmed to disband the special forces. Alongside them, Eskinder Nega, a former political opponent released in January 2022 after several years in prison, has also taken the path of armed struggle. Charismatic in nationalist circles, he created his movement, the Amhara Popular Front.
“The unknown for the time being is the degree of coordination of Amhara forces vis-à-vis the government, and the government’s ability to suppress the rebellion alone”, analyzes Mehdi Labzaé, who expects “a prolonged insurrection in the rural areas “. In the event that the federal army fails to put down the revolt, it could ask for the assistance of its former enemies of the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), which it has strongly approached since the peace agreement of Pretoria . A reversal of alliance which could again precipitate Ethiopia on the brink of civil war.