On this Saturday, June 24, pinched laughter burst from the Banquet Hall at the presidential palace. Faced with an audience of elected officials from his camp, personalities from civil society and a handful of opponents, who came to attend the closing of the national dialogue, Macky Sall multiplies the teasing pikes. His detractors describe him as “brutal”, “impassive”; it appears serene and warm. This playful mood surprises some guests who see it as the long-awaited sign. The President of Senegal would have finally settled the question that has been plaguing the country for four years. Will he seek a third term as his opponents suspect and his supporters demand?
Blurring the tracks on his real intentions for 2024, Macky Sall seems to have made a talent of it. To a supporter at the back of the room who implores him to run again, the head of state dodges once again: “I’m going to answer because the time has come to do so, but it’s not today. . »
In March, in an interview with the French weekly L’Express, he considered his candidacy plausible, because “on the legal level, the debate has long been settled”, his first term of seven years being “out of reach of the reform” of the 2016 constitutional referendum. It thus leaves it to the Constitutional Council to decide this “political” debate.
In Paris, a few days ago, he relaunched speculation in a chiaroscuro speech. “What I can promise you is that through our work we will stay in power with the will of the Senegalese people,” he told excited activists from his Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition. “French is a language of nuance,” quips one of his advisers. This ‘we’ can encompass our entire camp, as it must continue to run the country after 2024.”
A face of refusal
A confusing line that is proving costly for the country. The violence that shook Dakar and Ziguinchor in March 2021 and June 2023 – in the wake of the legal cases of his number one opponent, Ousmane Sonko – also carries with it a front of the refusal of a third mandate. A hostility all the stronger as the Senegalese president had pledged to stick to two consecutive terms.
“He changed his mind because the circumstances have changed,” says Abdou Karim Fofana, government spokesman. “The country is threatened by those who want to destroy our Republic. To these people who refuse dialogue and only know violence, we cannot leave the country, ”he assumes.
The theory of the providential man nevertheless collides with the idea of ??a script written in advance, from the start of the second term, to stay in power in 2024. “From 2019, Macky Sall took strong action which inevitably led to this third illegal candidacy,” analyzes Maurice Soudieck Dione, associate professor of political science at Gaston-Berger University in Saint-Louis.
“He first abolished the post of prime minister [before restoring it twenty months later], a measure that was not in his program. He ousted all the presidential candidates from his camp and rallied his first opponent, Idrissa Seck, who came second in 2019. The idea was to neutralize those who could have brought the charge against a third term. But his plan was called into question by the violence of March 2021 and June 2023 which thwarted his plans for 2024”, he underlines.
Keep your camp in order of battle
Nevertheless, in his entourage, some refuse to believe that he will take the plunge. “This third-term thing is a misunderstanding blown up by the press and the opposition. It has also been organized into a platform on this basis alone. However, no one has ever reported the president’s confidences on the subject, ”says one of his advisers, opposed to a new candidacy.
Still, the president makes the suspense last. Scheduled for before the Tabaski festival, which took place on June 28, the announcement was finally postponed to the beginning of July. “They say that in the morning he gets up convinced to go, in the evening he goes to bed wanting to give it up,” an opponent taunts. But now, his choice would be made. Only a handful of relatives, including his wife and an adviser who does not appear in the protocol, would know his decision. He should announce it early next week.
This skilfully preserved secret also has a political purpose. That of keeping his camp in order of battle. “Silence creates a quality of listening, philosophizes a collaborator at the palace. If the president had announced that he would not run again, no one would have worked in his political family. It would have blocked the country and kept us in a state of permanent campaigning. A renunciation of the Head of State could launch a fratricidal war. Already, appetites are whetted behind the scenes. And the blows rain down.
What’s going to be the reaction from the street?
“At the APR [Alliance for the Republic], the consensus is that Macky Sall is our candidate. He is the only one with the necessary expertise. But there are cowards trying to fuel the idea of ??an alternative within our camp. They will be treated properly,” threatens Mame Mbaye Niang, minister of tourism and close to the president.
Among the names that emerge is at the top that of the discreet Prime Minister, Amadou Ba. This former Minister of the Economy and Foreign Affairs was once approached to take over from Macky Sall. But the former tax inspector lacks popularity within the presidential majority.
“The coalition is an instrument created to serve the ambitions of Macky Sall. He made sure to keep her under his control. If he gives up representing himself, no one else will be able to keep it together. Moreover, we do not prepare a successor to a presidential election in seven months, ”said Maurice Soudieck Dione. His detractors also suspect him of having chosen his least dangerous opponents – Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall who, following their participation in the national dialogue, could see their ineligibility lifted – and dismissed his most serious challenger, Ousmane Sonko.
Another element that comes into play is Senegal’s future entry into the circle of oil and gas producing countries. “A part of his entourage, who have greatly enriched themselves during these twelve years, do not intend to let this financial windfall pass. She also fears being prosecuted in the event of alternation, tance on condition of anonymity a businessman. Macky Sall is hostage to his entourage. He must leave through the front door and congratulate himself on his extraordinary career. Because, despite his modest origins, he has risen to the top of the state. What more does he want? »
Remain an unknown. If the incumbent president decides to run again, what will be the reaction from the streets? “The risk of confrontation is significant. If Ousmane Sonko, the candidate of this deprived youth is arrested, and Macky Sall is a candidate, this augurs an explosive cocktail. And all the more so since he will face more consensual opponents who do not speak to these young people, ”warns Maurice Soudieck Dione.