The Congress of Deputies voted this Monday in favor of the reconsideration of the electoral advance for October of this year, as demanded in the previous hours by President Dina Boluarte in her call to the country. The vote (65 votes in favor, 49 against and 6 abstentions) confirmed, however, that the labyrinth of Peru is far from finding a way out: 87 votes (2/3 parts of the chamber) are needed for the advance to be approved of the general elections.

At least it is one more opportunity in the midst of the worst political and social crisis in years. The main obstacle to carrying out what the country is demanding is, once again, the most radical left and right. The followers of the coup leader Pedro Castillo insist on imposing a Constituent Assembly, despite the fact that in the streets they demand the departure of Boluarte and the electoral advance.

In the other trench, Jorge Montoya, for the Popular Renovation (RP) Trumpists, assured that there will only be progress if Boluarte resigns or if he is impeached. The deputy added that they are in a “war against communism” and that they have to do political pedagogy with the country: teach those who do not know what they do know.

The only advance was the position of the conservative Avanza País, which joined the group led by Fujimorismo, the center and the progressive left, which support the immediate call for elections.

Hours before the Congress met for the umpteenth time, the president decided to issue a kind of ultimatum. Boluarte pressured a Parliament that does not support her with the presentation of two constitutional reforms if the electoral advance was not approved in this Monday’s session. “Vote for Peru, in favor of the country, advancing the elections to 2023 and let’s say to all of Peru with the highest responsibility that we are all leaving,” shot the president, who carries on her shoulders the death of 65 people since the failed self-coup of State of Pedro Castillo seven weeks ago.

The first constitutional reform would include the electoral advance so that the first round is held on October 8, the second in December and the change of command before December 31. With the second initiative, Boluarte intends the total reform of the Constitution with the new deputies that are elected and that the new text be voted by referendum.

In this way, Castillo’s successor would still keep her silver bullet: her resignation, as demanded by 70% of the country.

The Peruvian Opinion Studies Company confirmed that 70% of Peruvians disapprove of the management of the first president, although only 31% hold her responsible for the protests. Congress is doing much worse: 87% rejection. The vast majority, 79%, want the elections to be held this year.

As if that wasn’t enough pressure, the Prosecutor’s Office went yesterday to the Government Palace and the Ministry of the Interior to continue their investigations into the violent deaths in the current political crisis. Accusations of genocide, homicide and serious injuries fall on the president and her main collaborators, including the prime minister, Alberto Otárola.

The political fray continues alongside protests, pitched battles, repression and roadblocks. The first fatality in Lima, broadcast live on television, further angered a country that in different surveys has also shown its desire for the elections to be brought forward and for Boluarte to resign.

After the failed takeover of Lima prepared from the south of the Andes, where the protests are massive, the confrontations between police and radicals are repeated in the nerve center of capital’s power. The marches do not reach 2,000 demonstrators.

Meanwhile, the deployment of military brigades in support of the Police continues to unblock the roads that have caused some shortages in the south of the country. Yesterday it was the turn of Ica, to the south of the capital, essential for communications with that part of the country.

These are the different possibilities for the elections in the Andean country.

Will the advancement take place this 2023?

It is the option desired by the majority of Peruvian society and by the president. There are two possible ways to advance to this year: the agreement in Congress or the resignation of Boluarte and a subsequent call that also needs the approval of the deputies. In the first case, the first round would be held in October and the second in December for the new president to take office before the end of the year. It is necessary that the advance be approved firstly before February 15 and secondly, days later, when the new legislative period has already begun, as required by the Constitution.

What are the chances that the elections will be in 2024?

The early general elections for April 2024 is the favorite option of the right-wing parties, with the excuse that some necessary electoral reforms can be put in place beforehand, such as holding primaries and the imposition of two chambers. The first round would take place in April and the second in June so that the president and Parliament take office in July.

Could it be the elections in 2026?

Exhausting the legislature, as if nothing were happening in the country, is still the current option given the lack of consensus for progress. On July 28, he would take office as the winner of the April and June electoral contest, five years after the coup leader Pedro Castillo was sworn in. In the previous legislature, Peru had four presidents: Kuczynski, Martín Vizcarra, Manuel Merino and Sagasti.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project