Dead calm on the upper room? The right and the center should maintain their domination after the senatorial elections on Sunday, but several rebalancings are taking place behind the scenes before the announced battles of the European elections and 2027.
More than 79,000 voters are called to the polls in around forty departments for this discreet and indirect ballot, which is still struggling to excite the crowds.
About half of the hemicycle is renewable like every three years, with 170 of the 348 seats at stake in many territories, from Landes to Pas-de-Calais via Paris, Île-de-France, Nouvelle -Caledonia or Mayotte.
In the departments where one or two senators are elected, the election takes place by majority vote in two rounds (one round in the morning, the other in the afternoon); and in the other departments, it takes place by proportional list voting in one round.
In his stronghold of Yvelines, the President of the Senate Gérard Larcher (Les Républicains) has no worries about his election for a sixth term as senator, nor, moreover, about his future confirmation as president during a vote on October 2, also without suspense.
Because despite the differences of the LR group in the National Assembly, the senatorial right is moving forward rather united in the wake of its patriarch: with 145 members compared to 64 for the second group in the Senate – the socialist group -, the Republicans have something to see ahead , especially if their alliance with the centrist Union (57 senators) of Hervé Marseille remains as solid.
“There are a few departments where we were unable to unite,” nevertheless notes LR leader Bruno Retailleau, citing Paris or Essonne.
The voting method, in fact, promotes stability despite its complexity. And the electorate, 95% coming from municipal councils, makes these elections a reflection of the last municipal elections, where the right had achieved good scores in medium-sized cities.
This does not suit the presidential majority, and even less the Renaissance party, which is struggling to convince major voters locally about the government’s record. Already a very small minority in the Senate and divided into several groups, Emmanuel Macron’s camp will above all try to limit its losses.
Several observers interviewed nevertheless see him compensating this situation with a breakthrough from Edouard Philippe’s Horizons party, which seems to be distilling candidates throughout France without arousing the resentment of Renaissance.
“There’s no point in fighting when you have less chance of being elected than your friend,” summarizes a presidential party executive.
“We continue to weave our web in the Senate”, slips Pierre-Yves Bournazel, the head of the elections division of Horizons who approaches this election with “humility” but also “a desire to continue its territorial establishment”.
The possible strengthening of the centrist Union, and its positioning, will also be scrutinized, because this group allied to the right includes several close to the presidential majority – including several MoDem – who sometimes vote against the right.
Can these uncertainties and these power struggles smile on the left? Allied in around fifteen territories, the socialists, communists and ecologists want to strengthen themselves, and are aiming for the bar of 100 senators between them (91 currently).
“100 left-wing senators on Sunday evening will be a good result,” said Pierre Jouvet, secretary general of the PS, while recalling that “the primary objective” will be to “remain the second group in the Senate.”
The agreement does not include La France insoumise, poorly established locally and absent from the upper house, and cannot predict a common future in the European elections of June 2024, where everyone is determined from their own side.
The PS and EELV did not appreciate, moreover, that LFI used the Nupes logo for the senatorial elections, judging on Friday in a letter that this “damages the image and mutual trust” of this union.
Currently absent from the territorial chamber, the National Rally is ready, for its part, to infiltrate the slightest breach to elect a small handful of senators.
22/09/2023 17:11:22 – Paris (AFP) – © 2023 AFP